The election results of October 4 represent a serious setback and an extremely grave threat to the working class and the Brazilian people, with repercussions throughout Latin America.

Trump’s imperialist project and the reactionary agenda of the Brazilian ruling classes have gained ground. But this story is far from over. It is still possible to turn the tables and block the path of the far right.

It is time to take to the battlefield, defending a critical vote for Lula, but also armed with the lessons learned from this partial defeat.

To prevent an even more catastrophic outcome in the second round, we need an independent mobilization that is not bound by the mistakes made in the first round.

We must also mobilize now, knowing that this struggle does not end on October 25, whatever the result may be. There will be no truce in this battle against the far right and imperialism, no matter who wins.

A critical vote for Lula in this second round is a necessity. But its effectiveness in blocking the far right once and for all will depend on our ability to mobilize and to build a new socialist left rooted in the working class, the youth, and the oppressed in general.

Far Right Strengthened, But It Can Be Confronted

To defeat our enemy, we must assess its true strength and its limitations. The far right has taken the lead in the presidential race and has emerged significantly stronger from the legislative and state elections.

At virtually every level, what we have seen is a resurgence of the most reactionary and rotten elements in national politics.

With 47.03% of the votes, Flavio Bolsonaro was 1.87% ahead of Lula (45.16%). This amounts to a difference of about 2.3 million votes out of a total electorate of over 120 million.

The lead is very small and can be overturned, despite the mistakes made so far and the fact that the context is unfavorable for the forces opposing the far right.

Bolsonaro hopes to count on a significant portion of the votes that went to other right-wing candidates in the first round. Together, these votes total about 9 million.

We must obviously fight to ensure that at least some of these votes do not go to Flavio Bolsonaro. Every vote won is precious.

But it would be a grave mistake to think that the only way to do this is to prioritize seeking agreements and alliances with right-wing politicians who might waver in their support for Flavio Bolsonaro. Relying on a favorable nod from Gilberto Kassab and his PSD, for example, is tantamount to signing a death warrant.

The first important lesson from this first round is that the strategy of forming alliances with the supposedly non-Bolsonarist right wing and the “Centrão” [right wing politicians for hire] in Congress) has only served to confuse the public and strengthen Bolsonarism.

Much more important than trying to influence the electoral base of the non-Bolsonarist right is the enormous number of people—more than 33 million—who abstained from voting.

Influencing and mobilizing a significant portion of these people against the far right is the central task.

This can only happen on the basis of a broad mass movement that must warn of the enormous setback that a victory for Bolsonaro would represent and also point to the possibility of real gains that improve people’s lives.

To achieve this, it will be necessary to build a movement with its own independent momentum, one that does not wait for directives from the PT leadership or the Lula camp.

We need a movement that is not afraid of what the “market” and “Faria Lima” [Brazil’s Wall St] will think of measures such as ending the fiscal straightjacket, significantly raising the minimum wage, ending the six-day work week, implementing free public transportation, reversing privatizations and counter-reforms, taxing the super-rich, and putting an end to the speculative casino of public debt.

This movement, characterized by a high degree of spontaneity and a willingness to fight, has already begun to take shape among the youth and the most politically conscious segments of the working class. It must grow, organize nationally from the grassroots up, and adopt a program of radical transformations.

A Congress That Will Remain An Enemy Of The People

Flávio Bolsonaro can also count on the momentum from the victories won by the right and far right in state elections and in Congress—especially in the Senate—in the second round. Bolsonaro’s party, the PL, elected 19 senators this year and will increase its representation from the current 15 to 28 senators starting in 2027.

Together with other right-wing senators, they are expected to reach the 3/5 majority needed to pass constitutional amendments and come close to the 2/3 majority required to initiate impeachment proceedings in both the Supreme Court and the Executive Branch.

To do so, they would need the same proportion of votes in the Chamber of Deputies, where they have also grown stronger. The PL caucus alone—which will grow from 98 to 121 deputies—will reach nearly the size of the entire caucus typically considered left-wing or center-left in the chamber.

The fact that the PL has grown mainly by taking space from other right-wing parties means that the far-right Bolsonarista faction is gaining strength at the expense of the so-called “Centrão” (all of whom are also on the right but more fickle), which fell from 140 to around 128 deputies.

With popular support fueled by the recent scandals surrounding the “Banco Master” corruption case, pro-Bolsonaro candidates—particularly those running for the Senate—have adopted a stance that is openly critical of the Federal Supreme Court and in favor of the impeachment of Alexandre de Moraes [who played a leading role in the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro for his attempted 2023 coup] and other justices.

In contrast, candidates from the ruling coalition have been unable to shake off the image of being part of the status quo of the political system and the republic’s failed institutions, including the STF.

Despite this conservative and reactionary majority, they can be defeated. The House’s approval of the bill that ends the six-day work week and the defeat of reactionary bills such as the “rapist bill” and the constitutional amendment on judicial immunity show that popular pressure is capable of defeating the enemies of the people in Congress.

In light of the institutional crisis the country is facing—one that is likely to deepen in the coming period—demanding radical changes in the political system, along with economic and social transformations, is vital for a mass movement against the far right to take shape now and continue into the next period.

Right-Wing Majority In State Governments

At the state level, among the 20 governors already elected in the first round, the majority (about 12 of them) openly align themselves with Flavio Bolsonaro’s camp. The PL has elected the most governors so far, with five already in office.

In addition to the PL, the significant and tragic victory of Tarcísio de Freitas of the ‘Republicanos’ party in São Paulo strengthens him as a far-right bourgeois alternative for the future.

In Rio de Janeiro, against all expectations, Bolsonaro supporter Douglas Ruas (PL) received the most votes with a lead of nearly 7% in the first round and is expected to enter the runoff with an advantage over Eduardo Paes (backed by Lula), pending the electoral court’s decision on the votes cast for disqualified candidate Anthony Garotinho.

In addition to highlighting the strength that the far right continues to maintain in Rio, despite all the disasters of previous administrations, this result demonstrates the complete failure of Lula and the PT’s strategy.

Allying with the right wing—those considered non-Bolsonarists—as a way to block the far right is a recipe for failure. Eduardo Paes is not an effective alternative to the far right.

Similarly, in São Paulo, by fielding Fernando Haddad, the PT put forward—against Tarcísio de Freitas—a candidate who was the architect of Lula’s “fiscal framework,” a former finance minister responsible for a conservative and anti-people economic policy.

The situation was difficult in any case, but it was compounded by the fact that, during his campaign, Haddad was careful not to offend the São Paulo bourgeoisie and did not take a firm stand against privatization or against Tarcísio’s authoritarian and repressive tactics.

The PT managed to elect governors in only three of the four states where it was already in power (Bahia, Piauí, and Ceará), while it is still competing in the runoff election in the fourth (Rio Grande do Norte).

The strategy of supporting centrist or center-right candidates allied with Lula in other states once again failed.

The Rise Of The Right & Frustration With The Government

The rise of the far right is directly linked to frustration with Lula’s government. It is not, as many have insinuated since October 4, a matter of widespread “ingratitude” on the part of the people toward Lula.

His campaign leadership completely underestimated this sense of frustration—which is rooted in reality—and began trying to convince voters that the situation was much rosier than the population actually perceived it to be.

The mistakes of the election campaign are nothing more than a continuation of the limitations of Lula’s administration—an administration that avoided popular mobilization, relied on backroom deals with sectors of the business community and the right, remained shackled by its austerity policies, and failed to deliver on its campaign promises.

In 2022, after Jair Bolsonaro’s catastrophic administration, the people wanted and expected more, but the government was unable to deliver because it was bound by the “fiscal responsibility” dictated by the market and its representatives.

The anticipated “repeal” of the structural attacks carried out by Temer and Bolsonaro did not materialize. The labor and social security counter-reforms remained intact, as did privatizations, such as that of Eletrobrás. The spending cap principle was maintained, with a slightly more flexible “fiscal framework,” but one that continued to impose cuts and attacks, such as those against the BPC (unemployment benefits) and other allowances.

High interest rates, economic slowdown, household debt, rising prices for basic food items, precarious working conditions, and a lack of prospects for the future—all of this is part of the reality for millions of Brazilians.

The measures taken in the final days of the campaign—such as the ban on “bets” [online gambling], the “Desenrola 3” social program, and the increase in Bolsa Família benefits—are significant. But not only do they fail to represent structural changes; they were also insufficient and came too late. Nor do they point toward a vision for the future.

Meanwhile, the bill to end the six-day work week has stalled in the Senate despite Lula’s negotiations with Senate leader Davi Alcolumbre.

The struggle in the streets for demands such as this—in addition to wage increases, free public transit, and labor and social rights—is what can win over the rank-and-file workers who have been misled by Bolsonarism and are frustrated with Lula.

These are the causes that must be championed in the struggle during the second round and after the elections, even if they are not embraced by Lula’s campaign leadership.

To Turn The Tide Now & Fight For New Victories

Even with the limitations and lack of enthusiasm surrounding the first-round election campaign, we are seeing how the concrete and palpable threat of a far-right victory has changed the atmosphere.

Mass mobilizations are beginning to take place, with young people playing a leading role. It is essential to encourage this independent, mass-based action.

Demonstrating strength in the streets is essential to restore the confidence and morale that were severely shaken by the limitations of Lula’s campaign in the first round and by the real fear of street demonstrations that Lula’s leadership has long displayed.

In addition to taking to the streets, it is essential that mass activism be politically prepared and equipped to engage with the population—street by street, house by house—with a proposal for radical change that only the strength of the organized people can achieve.

We must seize this moment to build and maintain an organization that will be needed more than ever in the coming period.

The cells, brigades, struggle committees, and assemblies that are forming must remain organized and continue their work. They must act independently of governments and the bureaucratic structures of the ruling parties.

Voting and securing more and more votes—albeit critical ones—for Lula is both necessary and urgent. But the struggle against the far right and Trumpist imperialism will be a protracted one and will require a profound socialist and revolutionary renewal of the left.

Now more than ever, we must put forward an anti-capitalist and socialist program as the only viable alternative to the crisis of capitalism, imperialist aggression, and the threat of the far right.