With the midterms less than a week away, Trump’s approval rating is at a record low. The Trump regime has attempted to overcome its deep unpopularity through undemocratic redistricting and attacks on voting rights, culminating in the gutting of the Voting Rights Act in April. In Texas, Republicans gerrymandered districts last year at Trump’s urging to try to gain five House seats. But despite these undemocratic maneuvers, there is a real possibility that the Republicans will lose the Texas Senate race on November 3. The Democratic nominee, James Talarico, leads Republican Ken Paxton by about three points in polling averages, though polls have overestimated Texas Democrats before.

A Talarico victory in Texas would be a blow to Trump and the Republicans, but the Democrats have proven time and time again that they won’t deliver for working people. We need a mass movement and a new workers’ party independent of the two parties of capitalism to defeat Trump and the far right and win real victories for workers.

Talarico’s Faux Progressivism

Talarico is a four-term Texas state representative from the greater Austin area. He was originally elected to a Republican-held seat as part of the anti-Trump “blue wave” in 2018. Talarico has cloaked his campaign in populist language. He points to the divide in the US being “top vs. bottom” rather than “left vs. right” and speaks about class war being waged by billionaires against “the rest of us.” He frequently couples populist language with religious rhetoric. In one post on X, for instance, he wrote: “When Jesus healed the sick, he didn’t ask for a deductible. When he fed the hungry, he didn’t price gouge for a profit. When the Hebrew prophets saw corruption, they spoke truth to power. When I take on this corrupt system, I’m doing it on biblical grounds.” In the Democratic primary against Jasmine Crockett, Talarico racked up particularly large margins in counties won by Bernie Sanders in the 2020 presidential primary.

However, Talarico’s progressivism is almost entirely rhetorical. He is not part of the democratic socialist wave nationally this year. Instead, he gives the Democratic establishment a potential way to channel the anger driving that wave into a candidate who poses no threat to them. He would not end military aid to Israel, instead opposing only the sale of “offensive weapons” to Netanyahu and the Israeli state while continuing to fund so-called defensive weapons systems like the Iron Dome. He does not support Medicare for All, instead proposing a “Medicare for Y’all” public option plan that keeps private insurers in place. While he has previously called for at least partially defunding ICE and redirecting funding to social services, his plan couples this with militarized border enforcement and more Border Patrol agents. He recently branded himself a “border security Democrat,” summing up his immigration policy with the folksy phrase that the “border should be like a front porch—it should have a welcome mat out front and a lock on the door.”

Talarico’s record in the Texas House has been far from progressive, and he has tacked further to the right since winning the nomination. He now avoids statements supporting trans rights and has tried to explain away some of his past seemingly supportive statements by saying he “missed the mark” and hadn’t expressed himself correctly. In September, he told Fox News that he “oppose[s] trans athletes playing in girls’ sports if it endangers safety or fairness.” He frequently ties his populist appeals to the need to reach across the aisle to Republicans. He cites Raphael Warnock, Chris Coons, and Michael Bennet, three bastions of the Democratic establishment, as his role models.

Talarico’s campaign does have some grassroots characteristics: 97% of contributions are $100 or less. But about half of his larger donations have come from outside Texas, which points more to excitement about defeating the Republicans than about Talarico himself. And while Talarico rails against billionaires, billionaire-funded super PACs have been major backers of his campaign, including contributions of $11.5 million by LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman and $2.5 million by charter school backer Stephen Mandel. 

Like the Republicans, the Democrats are a capitalist party funded by corporate and billionaire money. Even a very limited reform like Talarico’s “Medicare for Y’all” plan would face fierce opposition from the insurance and pharmaceutical industries, and winning it would take the kind of mass movement that the Democrats will never build. Talarico’s “reach-across-the-aisle” politics means compromising with corporations and the right wing rather than fighting for the bottom 99%.

Anti-Trump Wave

The potential for a Democratic victory in Texas is being driven primarily by the Trump regime’s deep unpopularity nationally, and by the fact that Talarico is running against a historically flawed Republican opponent. A majority of likely voters in Texas, 54%, disapprove of Trump—high for a red state, and up about 6% since he took office—driven by the unpopular war on Iran, the cost-of-living crisis, and attacks on immigrants. And the Republican Senate candidate, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, is even more unpopular. He has been plagued by corruption scandals and was impeached by his own party, but avoided conviction by the Republican-controlled state Senate. Amid Trump’s attacks on immigrant communities across Texas, some Latino voters who shifted to Trump in 2024 are backing Talarico. He leads among Latino likely voters by 52% to 41%. This is particularly consequential in the Rio Grande Valley, where Trump and Governor Greg Abbott’s attacks on immigrants have decimated many communities. Even Texas’ previously “safe” Republican 15th Congressional District is now a competitive race. Talarico has also out-fundraised Paxton by a massive margin of $129 million to $19.5 million through September.

While Democrats have touted the possibility of a so-called “Texas miracle” for more than a decade, Talarico represents the strongest possibility thus far, and Republicans are panicking. Texas has been a base of Republican power for 40 years, and Republicans nationally are now pouring money into the race to save Paxton. Republicans have spent more than $230 million in super PAC money on the race, including millions from Elon Musk. A Talarico victory, especially if combined with a nationwide “blue wave” and other Republican losses in Texas, would be a major blow to the Republicans nationally and cause further panic, particularly amid the coming fight over who will succeed Trump. Trump did endorse Paxton, and MAGA still has a firm hold on the Texas GOP. Talarico’s reach-across-the-aisle politics offers no path to defeating the far right.

Workers Need A Party Of Our Own

Electing Democrats won’t stop Trump’s wars, the cost-of-living crisis, or his attacks on immigrants, trans people and democratic rights. Even if Democrats win both the House and Senate, Trump will likely declare a “blue wave” illegitimate and double down on authoritarian tactics to force through his right-wing policies. An electoral defeat for Trump and the Republicans could raise the expectations of some workers and young people, but Talarico and the Democrats cannot meet these expectations. Without a genuine left-wing alternative fighting for working people, disillusionment can be captured by the far right.

Rather than relying on the Democrats, we need mass struggle by workers and students—before, during, and after the election. The potential for class struggle to push Trump back was exemplified by the January 23 general strike in Minneapolis that forced Trump to end the ICE occupation. We need a new mass workers’ party, independent of the two parties of capitalism, to organize this struggle. Ultimately, we need a revolutionary transformation of society to end the capitalist system that produces monsters like Trump.