A ceasefire is now defined as “shooting in a more moderate manner,” regime change means the same regime stays in power, and the US-Israel-Lebanon trilateral agreement professes a “deep appreciation for the vision and leadership of President Donald J. Trump.” Welcome to the Middle East in 2026.

The US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran continues to shape the world economy and draw the entire Middle East into crisis. The human toll is enormous: estimates put the dead at over 10,000 and the injured at 50,000, the vast majority in Lebanon and Iran. In Gaza, the death toll has passed 1,000 since last year’s so-called ceasefire was signed. Trump’s “Board of Peace” is geared to perpetuate imperialist interests in the region. The Israeli regime, the most dangerous force in the region, continues to occupy about half of the Gaza Strip, large sections of southern Lebanon, and a “security strip” in Syria. In the West Bank and East Jerusalem, Israeli occupation forces and settlers unleash daily terror against Palestinians while expanding their occupation.

In mid-May, the Pentagon estimated $29 billion in US war spending. Broader damage is estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars. US workers are footing tens of billions through higher gas prices. If there was any doubt, capitalism prioritizes war over healthcare, education, and housing.

The Bosses’ Politicians Can’t Guarantee Peace

The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) is essentially a US surrender document. It calls for the US to lift all sanctions against Iran, create a $300 billion reconstruction fund for damaged infrastructure, and withdraw US forces from “surrounding areas.” The Trump administration is desperate to end the war before it becomes an even bigger political and military disaster.

But even this extremely limited agreement has not held up, with hostilities reigniting only a few weeks after it was signed and negotiations taking place in fits and starts. The entire episode has been a devastating blow to US imperialism.  But the war did not cause US imperialist decline—it’s a symptom of it.

The Israel-Lebanon agreement, signed under US supervision and pressure, is even less likely to hold. It focuses on disarming “non-state” groups, primarily the Shi’ite Hezbollah, and rebuilding the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) as a condition for full Israeli withdrawal. Hezbollah was not part of the negotiations, they reject the deal, and will not be eliminated by military means or agreements between Lebanon and Israel. That’s because the underlying conditions for their existence and base of support remain: continued Israel aggression, a weak Lebanese government, and discrimination against Shi’ites. Attempting to disarm Hezbollah carries massive risk and could spark a new civil war in Lebanon, especially with over a million Lebanese—more than a fifth of the population—being forced out of the south, as death and destruction continues to spread.

Despite heavy losses for the Iranian state and Hezbollah, including more than 1,000 Hezbollah fighters killed in combat, both have been politically strengthened by the war for now. They can portray themselves as standing up to the US-Israeli offensive and regain some support among working people.

Crisis For Israeli & US Imperialism

The Trump regime has hit record low levels of support in the US and is increasingly isolated globally. The weapons used to bomb Iran may take years to replenish. Elements of Trump’s right-wing coalition are abandoning the unpopular president. Meanwhile, his continued commitment to a “US guarantee” of funds, investments, and political security across the Middle East makes the “America First” slogan even more of a farce.

The Israeli regime under mass murderer Benjamin Netanyahu is undergoing its own death by a thousand cuts. As Netanyahu’s criminal corruption case continues, the military’s overextension across seven different fronts has led to more soldiers’ and civilian deaths with no end in sight, sparking mass anger and protests in society.

The tension between Trump and Netanyahu has increased, with Trump desperate to end the war for his own political survival and Netanyahu facing the opposite pressure. While the war has put the limits of US imperialism on full display, it’s clear that between these two, Trump still calls the shots.

The impact of the war is also felt in the US midterm elections. Several left-wing Democratic candidates have ousted establishment politicians by highlighting their backing by AIPAC, the powerful US-Israeli lobby group.

The war has shaken the alliance between Western imperialism and the Gulf states, particularly Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Like the Israeli and Iranian ruling classes, these regimes pursue their own imperialist ambitions through wars and conflicts in the region while investing heavily in financial ventures around the world. This has recently led the Saudi regime, a historic rival of the Iranian Mullahs, to look toward Pakistan and China out of dissatisfaction with both how the US conducted the war and with the MoU.

Socialism Is The Only Way Forward

There are no “good guys” among the ruling classes of the Middle East or the global powers. Each country is led by a group of corrupt individuals who live in luxury while millions live in fear without their basic needs being met. Working people should place no faith in any capitalist government or institution to aid the masses in Gaza, Beirut, or Tehran.

Earlier this year, the existence of the Iranian regime was under serious threat at the hands of mass movements. Trump’s war helped them reconsolidate support and intensify repression against dissidents.

Israel’s right-wing capitalist “opposition” parties offer no real alternative for the working class in Israel or across the region. Their leaders are military generals, far-right figures, and traditional representatives of the elite.

These crises expose the same basic truth across the region: none of the ruling classes can offer a way out. The only force capable of bringing down corrupt and authoritarian regimes—from Iran to Israel to the US, ending war, liberating oppressed people, and securing real economic prosperity—is the global working class. The striking European dock workers last September showed a brave example of working-class solidarity. 

To defeat the billionaires, workers need their own political parties. These parties must be armed with a revolutionary socialist program: an end to exploitation, oppression, and war, and democratic collaboration across national and religious divides for the benefit of working people everywhere.