Adopted by Socialist Alternative’s National Committee on 10/11/26

1. Every day reinforces that we are now in a new era of capitalist history where what the American ruling class has on offer is massive inequality, growing repression, a bleak future for young people, endless war, and militarism. This includes war at home against the immigrant population, and a supercharged offensive against past gains of oppressed people and the working class generally. Big struggles are sure to come.
2. Trump’s relentless reactionary attacks against oppressed people is creating a pressure cooker. The growing indignation, the leftward trajectory of oppressed people and youth in particular, and the potential for high-profile sparks all make this bound to burst open at multiple points, often unexpectedly. The struggle against sexism, after a years-long setback, has once again taken center stage in mass consciousness, after the horrific story of Jane Doe and the crimes of the Cornell 7 broke into public view. The hashtag #IAmJaneDoe is now a mass social media phenomenon, viscerally underscoring just how pervasive sexual violence against women remains and how little justice is ever served, with each story further propelling the wave of outrage. Over 150 events nationwide were organized for the October 8 national day of action, and thousands of students walked out. Without organization to harness this outrage, it will be disorganized, explosive, and eventually dissipate, but this genie will not easily go back into the bottle, and it is likely that the feminist movement has been given renewed momentum after years of setback.
3. Trump’s disastrous war in Iran has fully confirmed that US imperialism is in long-term decline. The warning signs of a serious economic crisis point to the next phase of this decline. Meanwhile, a summer of record heat waves, massive wildfires, and drought conditions across much of the Northern hemisphere point to capitalism having no plan for humanity’s future. Donald Trump’s “plan,” instead, is to block any attempt to further develop renewable energy in the US.
4. The Trump 2.0 regime, which has been the spearhead for far-right gains internationally and the embodiment of the reactionary turn of the bourgeoisie, is in crisis and increasingly unpopular. Trump’s unpopularity is reinforced by his deep attachment to Big Tech which embodies much of what disgusts ordinary people about contemporary capitalism. Opposition to data centers has grown across society and on both sides of the political spectrum.
5. Unable to win a fair election, Trump is trying to steal the midterm elections by hook or by  crook. This is likely to fail but he has been able to go remarkably far in this direction. At the 11th hour, the Supreme Court blocked his moves to use the USPS to cause havoc against mail-in ballots while the Federal Reserve, under its new head Kevin Warsh, defied him and raised interest rates. This reflects Trump’s weakening position and a growing willingness by some parts of the ruling class to put some blocks on his more extreme moves, but is in no way a change in the bourgeoisie’s reactionary turn or a real step to ditching Trump or his agenda as a whole. Soon after the Supreme Court ruled against Trump on mail-in ballots, they issued a different ruling in Trump’s favor—though less impactful than the mail-in ballot decision—which gives a go-ahead to plans for establishing a federal database to seek out ineligible voters. All of this underlines that relying on any section of the bourgeois establishment to stop Trumpism is completely unreal.
6. The hunger for an actual fight against Trump and to address inequality and the worsening unaffordability is reflected in the string of electoral victories by DSA members and other left Democrats. But the single most important development in the struggle against Trump 2.0 remains the January 23 general strike in the Twin Cities that forced Trump to ramp down the ICE invasion. Now, given space by a downturn in anti-ICE struggle over the summer, ICE is staging a new record-setting offensive and Trump is seeking to win in the courts—through a campaign of repression—what was lost in the streets of the Twin Cities.
7. The crisis of Trump 2.0 along with the wider crisis of capitalism point to the potential for explosive developments and openings to build the forces of Marxism and a real left alternative. This update is not an attempt to fully describe the situation in the US but will focus on the features that point towards further upheaval and struggle as well as the dangers posed to the mass movement if it doesn’t draw the necessary conclusions.

State Of The Regime

The War With Iran

8. We are now nearly eight months into a war that Trump thought would be a quick, “easy” victory like kidnapping Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela. The war with Iran rapidly became a stalemate in military terms as Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, which previously was used to move 20% of global petroleum and liquefied natural gas. Escalations by the Houthis in the Red Sea are pushing the crisis even further. Objectively, this predictable quagmire represents a massive defeat for US imperialism, the biggest it has suffered since Vietnam.
9. The limits of US power have been brutally exposed. The air campaign, though highly destructive—had no chance of ending the Iranian regime without internal revolution or a massive invasion. The latter, as we pointed out, was completely excluded by the persistence of the Vietnam/Afghanistan/Iraq “syndrome”—the overwhelming opposition of the US population to major foreign adventures and significant casualties. There has never been this level of opposition inside the US to a foreign war from the outset and it has only grown over time.
10. There has been a very significant and under-reported degree of destruction to US bases in the region from Iranian missile and drone attacks. For example, the damage to the Navy’s refueling base in Bahrain meant that the U.S.S. Lincoln aircraft carrier had to be supplied from Diego Garcia, 2,200 miles away in the Indian Ocean. This contributed to the terrible conditions for sailors on the Lincoln and its record-long deployment, which was in part ended because of revelations in the media and outcry from sailors’ families. As US imperialism’s crisis deepens, more scandals like this will take place and can provoke anti-war organizing within the ranks of the military itself as well as play a role in catalyzing a broader anti-war movement.
11. On top of this are the steadily declining stocks of US munitions, which has led to drawing military resources away from the Western Pacific, US imperialism’s most important long-term focus, and European theaters. There have been leaks about generals calling to wrap up the conflict, as it is not sustainable. All of this is taking place alongside ongoing purges inside of the US military.
12. But there is no prospect of a settlement in the short term without a full capitulation by the US. This has led Trump to veer back and forth between ramped up bombing (though not on the scale of the start of the war) and a focus on isolating the Iranian regime further and undermining its already battered economy. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trump promised “economic D-Day,” but it rapidly became clear that the administration would refuse to put sanctions on China, which is Iran’s main economic lifeline, purchasing 90% of its oil exports. The Chinese regime made it very clear that sanctions would lead to a resumption of last year’s full-scale trade war, which Trump has no stomach for at this point. This has only underlined the weakness of the US position in the war and their very limited options.
13. While the Iranian masses will reassert themselves against the brutal regime of the mullahs at a certain stage, the main effect of the war—completely contrary to the expectations of the US and its ally Israel—has been to significantly strengthen the position of the Iranian regime in relation to the Iranian masses, and in the region particularly vis-a-vis the Gulf states. The Israeli regime has also seen its position severely undermined, a process which has become an important part of political developments in the US.

Economic Storm Clouds

14. While the bourgeois media continues to portray the US economy as “resilient,” they are also increasingly forced to acknowledge that under the surface there are growing problems that point towards a major crisis. And as far as the bottom 90% of the population—especially the bottom 40%—is concerned, inflation, the crisis of affordability, and a very tight job market mean that for large numbers they are already experiencing recession-like conditions.
15. At this point the US and world economy resemble a line of dominoes. If any of these falls, it will likely knock down many others. The single biggest issue is the massive speculative bubble driven by Big Tech’s AI data center buildout.
16. The scale of the buildout, which is sucking investment capital away from all other sectors, is astronomical. Internationally, one trillion dollars is being invested this year alone, $590 billion of that in the US. Goldman Sachs estimates seven trillion dollars will be spent on data centers internationally by 2030. While the buildout is financed by the fantastically overvalued Magnificent Seven, they are increasingly raising capital in debt markets, over $200 billion so far this year. Various reports indicate they are trying to spread the risk in various “creative” and underhanded ways, extremely reminiscent of the latter stages of the housing bubble of the 2000s. When the bubble—created by massive overaccumulation of capital—bursts, it will be ordinary people who will be made to pay, just like after 2008.
17. Trump’s war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which does not seem to be ending anytime soon, has led to elevated prices of gas and especially diesel. The reason that the price of oil did not go far higher in the early months of the war was that key countries, including the US but especially China (which halted most fuel imports), drew down massive amounts of their reserves. The US strategic reserve is now at a 40-year low. Trump’s oil deal in Venezuela is not expected to resolve this in the short term. This process cannot go much further. If the reserves are used up, oil will quickly reach $150 a barrel or higher, pushing the world economy towards recession.
18. Developments in the bond markets (which is how the US and other countries finance their state debt) have received a lot of attention as inflation and other factors including loss of confidence in the US are making investors demand a higher rate of return. The rise of long-term interest rates will make borrowing more expensive for businesses and ordinary people. Central banks may also be forced to raise short-term interest rates, which they control.
19. The rise in interest rates is a problem for Japan, France, the UK, Germany, and the US, all of whose debt levels have soared. Higher interest rates on a bigger debt means higher interest payments, cutting into funds for all other areas. The US interest payment is estimated to be $1 trillion this year. No prizes for guessing which areas will be cut first; it won’t be military spending. The US debt has now reached $40 trillion, or 125% of GDP, racked up during the bailouts and fiscal stimulus in 2008-9 and during COVID and by Trump’s two tax cuts. Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security are on the chopping block, worsening conditions for workers and the poor and driving developments towards a social explosion.
20. The general rise of interest rates could be the factor that pushes the economy over into recession as well as puncturing the stock market bubble. This is really just another name for the AI bubble, since the bulk of gains on the stock markets have been for Big Tech.
21. Within the large umbrella of unaffordability, housing is again playing an important role. The US economy is seeing a dangerous combination of higher mortgage rates, now above 7%, and the highest prices for housing in history, within the context of stagnant wages. The cost of the median single family house is now equivalent to over five times median household income, the highest ever recorded.
22. Then there is Trump’s obsession with recklessly wielding tariffs. He has started another trade war with Canada because it wouldn’t cave to demands that would have put the US in control of their trade policy. As opposed to the period after “Liberation Day,” countries are no longer as intimidated by the US tariff cudgel, as seen by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s threat to match the US tariffs “dollar for dollar.” 
23. Last but not least, the El Niño weather system, projected to be the strongest of these since the 19th century, is set to accelerate drought and other climate disasters globally and worsen an already dire food crisis in parts of the world. Fuel prices are already leading to protests in many countries and a full-scale food crisis can lead to greater social upheaval, as seen in the Arab Spring 15 years ago.
24. In short, with a speculative bubble estimated to be four times the size of the housing bubble of the 2000s and with many other vulnerabilities, the situation increasingly resembles the run-up to 2008-9, with an important difference. A massive crisis this time will happen without the degree of international cooperation of that time during neoliberal globalization. We are now in a world situation characterized by deglobalization and growing protectionism linked to the interimperialist conflict. Like the 1930s, which this era resembles in many ways, these features will exacerbate the crisis.
25. Would Trump seek to nationalize or partially nationalize Big Tech if it was in serious danger? This certainly can’t be excluded and has already been hinted at. Socialists are in favor of bringing Big Tech into public ownership and democratic workers’ control, but the purpose of nationalization in this case would be to put the public on the hook for massive liabilities while the investors and the tech moguls themselves are insulated as much as possible.
26. The argument would be the same as during the implosion of the subprime mortgage lending bubble, which threatened to bring down major investment banks and key insurance companies. Like a bad rerun, Big Tech and finance capital would be deemed “too big to fail,” followed by the mother of all bailouts. Struggle will be discussed more below, but suffice to say, like the Great Recession, these developments will provoke deep anger and politicization in the working class and open the way for potentially historic struggles.

The Direction Of Trump 2.0

27. The fact that the Trump regime is at its weakest point and possibly heading into even more serious crises has not changed its authoritarian direction and overall parliamentary Bonapartist character. In fact, as we pointed out even a year ago, a wounded Trump regime could become even more dangerous. Besides this, the administration is evidently the most corrupt in American history, with Trump and his family enriching themselves to the tune of billions.
28. In the past period, the regime has managed to gut the Civil Rights Act and ramp up its efforts to steal the midterms. ICE is now arresting more people than even at the height of invasions of urban areas before January 23 and in August Trump essentially ended TPS, affecting over one million immigrants. The administration is now expanding its campaign of political repression to more targets on the left, in the labor movement, and beyond. 
29. We have explained that Trump 2.0 is the most racist administration in over 100 years, since Woodrow Wilson. While gutting the Civil Rights Act does not mean a full-scale return to Jim Crow, white nationalists play a key role in the White House, promoting a wide purge of Black people from government, including in the military. 
30. All anti-discrimination oversight, whether related to race or gender, has been ended and the Department of Justice’s Civil Rights Division as well as the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) now focus on alleged discrimination against white men. The regime has sought to protect Epstein’s accomplices, leading to massive outcry in society, including among Trump’s base, showing the complicated nature of consciousness. 
31. Trans people have been repeatedly targeted since Trump’s return. The administration has been particularly relentless in going after any element of healthcare provision for transgender youth, including going after major hospital systems, which by and large have caved to the administration’s pressures and cut their gender-affirming care.
32. This counterrevolutionary offensive against oppressed people’s historic gains will continue regardless of the outcome of the midterms alongside the war against immigrants and the drive to criminalize political dissent, targeting the left and the labor movement. Again, the only effective way to push back and defeat these attacks is through mass struggle which brings the social power of the working class to bear.
33. When the majority of the ruling class—with Big Tech in the lead—got behind Trump, they did so because they wanted a shake-up of the state and society. They agreed with the drive to reassert US imperialism’s interests globally, they love Trump’s tax cuts, and strongly support a domestic ideological offensive to discipline the working class. We characterized this as the reactionary turn of the bourgeoisie in the context of the new era. It is an international, not just a US, phenomenon, but Trump has obviously played a pivotal role.
34. But now that the bet on a Bonapartist, strongman figure—in many ways an act of desperation—is leading US capitalism into even deeper difficulties, the ruling class cannot simply hit the reset button. For the time being, they are stuck with Trump even if some of them have buyer’s remorse. Moreover, the next president, regardless of which party they come from, will not qualitatively reverse the fundamental trends he has unleashed. This is both because many of Trump’s changes are simply not easily reversed (for instance killing whole agencies) but also because while they may certainly differ on speed and scale, the fundamental direction of the rightward turn is broadly agreed by the ruling class.
35. Of course, the crisis of the regime could lead to its dramatic demise, sparked by further crises and mass resistance. There is speculation about impeachment if the Democrats regain control of the House. Trump clearly will go to great lengths to avoid a third impeachment, but even if successful this would not in itself lead to his removal. Any prospect of Trump being removed prematurely from office without a new historic upsurge in mass struggle is highly unlikely.
36. But even in the post-Trump situation or when Democrats are back in the White House, which is obviously very difficult to fully game out at this stage, it is not the case that the previous status quo returns. From the state capitalist measures, which actually accelerated under Biden, to the completely militarized border and gargantuan military budgets, a range of features will not be reversed and the world will not simply forget the weakness of US imperialism which has been laid bare by Trump 2.0.
37. The general state of society—including massive polarization, hatred of the corporate elite, and complete loss of faith in institutions and political parties—in the context of the decline of imperialism and the crisis of the Trump regime, is leading to more serious concern in sections of the ruling class. Some bourgeois commentators, including both liberals and conservatives, speculate about the possibility of civil war, the country splitting, or a revolutionary situation like Russia in 1905. These speculations reflect an element of panic, but it shows that the bourgeois can see that the direction of their system is towards a far more unstable situation, which they see no clear way to stop. Nor is there any prospect of a postwar-type boom where profits rise while the share of GDP going to workers in the form of wages and salaries also grows significantly. In fact, the trend is in the opposite direction as the share going to wages and salaries has plunged to the lowest level since World War II.

Political Developments

Crisis For Both Parties & Opening For Independent Politics

38. The backdrop to the elections and US politics today is the historic (un)favorability crisis facing both parties and historically low confidence in the institutions of US capitalism. According to a Gallup poll, only 27% of Americans expressed “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in the 14 institutions included in the survey, which was only one percentage point higher than the record low in 2023. So-called “double haters,” those with unfavorable views of both the Democrats and the Republicans, is 26%.
39. A record-high 45% of US adults identified as independents in 2025, a trend driven by younger voters in particular. A September 2025 Gallup poll reported that 62% of US adults say the two major political parties are doing such a poor job that a third party is needed, which is essentially tied with the record-high 63% in 2023. For those under age 50, the number is 70%.
40. Of course this support does not automatically translate into a new left-wing party, or even wins for individual independent candidates, primarily because of the refusal of the majority of the left and labor movement to break from the Democrats. With consciousness so wide open for a new working-class party, it is a political crime of historic proportions that Bernie Sanders, Zohran Mamdani, and DSA, alongside left labor leaders like Shawn Fain and Sara Nelson have continued to promote the pipe dream of reforming the Democrats. 
41. The two-party system in US politics has endured a prolonged period of crisis and the colossal contradictions present at the moment mean it is very fragile. While we do not predict the emergence of a new mass left party in the short term, all of these factors point to the immense vacuum that exists on this question and to the potential for our call for a new, working-class party independent of both corporate parties to gain an echo especially among young people. Debate around this fundamental question for the class struggle in the US will intensify and broaden in the coming period, and our organization’s unique and necessary program can play a crucial role in this semi-mass and mass discussion.

Midterm Elections

42. The midterm elections this November will provide an important snapshot of consciousness and determine the balance of power in Congress for the remainder of Trump’s second term. These elections are extremely high stakes for both parties and their capitalist backers, and they are spending the money to prove it. As of June, corporate donations in the midterm election cycle had hit $646 million, already surpassing the 2024 presidential election cycle by 40%. 
43. The purpose of this document isn’t to give detailed predictions on the midterm results, but to comment on the key trends and prepare the organization for the post-election political landscape. Our perspectives will of course need to be updated based on the concrete results in the coming weeks. We should expect that as soon as the dust settles on the midterms, the 2028 primary season will begin.
44. As we have laid out, the Trump regime is deeply unpopular with no signs of turning things around. The Democrats have regained the advantage in party affiliation, with the numbers essentially back to what they were during Trump’s first term. What we can say with confidence is that the Democrats are poised to make gains; the question is how substantial those gains will be. They are very likely to take the House and possibly the Senate (though, as always, the party has scapegoats like John Fetterman to make a technical numerical majority irrelevant), and the results will shift the dynamics in Congress and open new battlefields in US politics.
45. Trump, despite feigning indifference about the midterm results, is well aware of the precarious position he is in and is looking for every avenue to rig the elections in favor of the Republicans. Earlier this year, both parties went head to head in a redistricting war, which culminated in the complete gutting of the Voting Rights Act, a historic attack on the legacy of the Civil Rights Movement. 
46. The SAVE Act hit a wall, but there has been a battle unfolding over restrictions on mail-in ballot voting. This was struck down in lower courts multiple times and then by the Supreme Court, indicating an effort by the courts to “check” Trump on his most outlandish attempts to undermine confidence in and basic functioning of the political system. However, Trump was recently granted a victory by the Supreme Court which allows the implementation of a system to allow states to “hunt” for ineligible voters. He will also continue to pursue other avenues to shape the outcome of the midterms, which whether or not their actual implementation are successful could still introduce chaos and confusion into the process, possibly affecting turnout, and be used after the fact by the right to place doubt over the results. Voter intimidation at the polls, including by ICE, is also a real threat. The Justice Department has already indicated that they plan to send out 1,000 “election monitors” for the November elections.
47. The Trump regime’s many attacks on voting rights are in effect an attempt to steal the election, which could have actually been successful in ensuring Republican control over both houses of Congress if things were closer. But while his efforts to steal the election are unlikely to succeed in the House given the Democrats’ big lead, it’s possible that Trump’s various undemocratic attacks give the Republicans the edge they need to hold the Senate. A more overt attempt by Trump to steal the elections outright, disregard court rulings, or a refusal to accept the results would provoke a massive battle, mobilizing big sections of working-class people, and likely the labor movement and sections of the Democratic Party as well. We emphasize our defense of democratic rights, which were hard won gains through working-class struggle, and our opposition to any attempt from Trump and the right wing to steal the election. But we do this without giving an inch of support to the Democratic Party who have stood by, ineffective at actually stopping the right-wing offensive, pointing instead to the need for mass working-class action.
48. Assuming they are unsuccessful in rigging the outcome of the election such that the Republicans keep a majority in both houses, it is very unlikely that the Trump regime will just drop the subject of the midterms after November. While the exact form of this is not yet clear, Trump will likely make accusations of election fraud, non-citizens voting, or some other claim from his repertoire. A significant section of the Republican Party has concerns about voter fraud, however Trump’s broad unpopularity will make it more difficult for him to mobilize around this outside of his core, hardened base.
49. Regardless of the outcome of the midterms, we should be clear that Trump will not become a typical “lame duck” who is content to finish out his term with little to show for it. As explained above, this regime, even in a state of remarkable crisis and dysfunction, has not backed off on its ultra-reactionary agenda. While they have been pushed back or run into roadblocks on some of their goals, the dominant characteristic of this administration has been the degree of havoc wreaked on the lives of workers and oppressed people in the US and internationally. However, losing a rubber-stamp Congress, amid continued economic crisis and declining US imperial power abroad, will weigh heavily on the regime. Trump will continue seeking ways to advance his right-wing, especially self-aggrandizing, policies and will often succeed. But he will face far greater constraints in the final two years of his administration than before. A strengthened position for the Democrats in Congress will shift the political dynamics post-November, but on its own this will not fundamentally change the direction of travel of this regime. For this, mass movements are needed and, decisively, working-class action.

50. Additionally, an important feature of the Trump administration, linked to its parliamentary Bonapartist character, has been its willingness to go around Congress and to see what it can get away with and leave it to the courts to rein in its agenda after the fact. This will be even more the case after the midterms. The example of the 2018-19 government shutdown, which took place directly after the Democrats’ historic “blue wave” in that year’s midterms is illustrative. For one, Trump immediately followed up his clobbering in the midterms with a historic attack, the longest ever (at that point) government shutdown to secure funding for the border wall. Second, the decisive factor in actually bringing the shutdown to an end was sickouts by federal workers and the threat of wider strike action by flight attendants, not the actions of the Democrats who stood by aimlessly until Nancy Pelosi felt it was safe to swoop in to take credit. 

Trump, The Republican Party & MAGA

51. Trump was elected on promises to end foreign wars, bring back American manufacturing, and make the economy great again. All of these have been abject failures or proven to be outright lies. On issues that he has “delivered” on, like his deportation agenda, sections of his base have begun to pull away from him. Fifty percent of Americans, including nearly one in four who voted for Trump in 2024, think his deportation agenda is too aggressive. Trump’s major gains in support among Hispanic voters in 2024 have largely disappeared. His overall approval rating has again fallen to new lows, with the New York Times poll aggregate reporting an approval rating of 37% in late-September, with some reputable polling reporting approval as low as 32% (the lowest of either term). A UMass Amherst poll conducted in late August found that 16% of 2024 Trump voters said that with hindsight they would not vote for him. Between Trump’s comments about not caring “even a little bit” about the the financial situation for average Americans as a result of his policies, and the decadent spending on the construction of his new ballroom, the New York Times also reports that out of voters polled, 10% more described the Republican Party as elitist than the Democratic Party. This can also secondarily be attributed to the Democrats, who have been campaigning on cost of living and affordability.
52. The anti-establishment anger that fueled the more working-class section of his base is added to by Trump’s ties to the deeply-hated tech billionaires. Trump has gone all in on AI and the building of new data centers, saying that communities that oppose data centers could end up “backwards and poor.” AI and crypto PAC spending is playing a huge role in the elections. Super PAC spending from these sectors totaled $127 million across more than 100 primaries, with their supported candidates winning roughly 90% of these races.
53. The biggest 20 donors this election cycle had contributed an astonishing $1.2 billion into federal races as of late August. The overwhelming majority of these are donors to the Republican Party, many from Big Tech, showing that while Trump’s second term has ushered in serious instability, the ruling class is not simply turning away from him wholesale. This reflects not an individual loyalty to Trump, but a shared longer-term vision for a more openly reactionary future for US and global capitalism.
54. While acknowledging the serious hit to Trump’s support, we should also not overstate the degree of defection of Trump’s base or the fractures inside the party. The regime still maintains a very hardened and loyal core of tens of millions. We have discussed over the last decade the process of the “Trumpification” of the Republican Party which has been complete for years. The Trump wing has become the establishment within the party, and it is still very dangerous for Republicans to cross him. 
55. Most Trump-backed candidates won their primaries; however, his position of absolute kingmaker began to show signs of eroding in the later races. Some candidates are attempting to distance themselves from Trump, clearly seeing him as a liability as his poll numbers continue to drop. This was exemplified by the long list of Republicans facing tough re-election fights who declined to attend the $25,000 per ticket Republican midterm “convention,” aka “Trumpapalooza,” that took place in September. 
56. While Trump still controls the party, there is increased willingness to stand up to him. In this context, the crisis for the regime is likely to deepen, including with further debates and fractures inside the party, though this can be a tortured process with stops and starts and partial reversals. The earliest high-profile break-up inside the Republican Party was between Trump and Elon Musk, but Musk has in large part been brought back into the fold and continues funneling money into Republican campaigns. But as we have pointed to, cracks in the Trump coalition and his base cannot be papered over forever and will develop into larger breaks at some stage under the pressure of events. Severe Senate losses in formerly reliably red states could force a more decisive reckoning within the Republican Party. Defeat in Texas is a real possibility given the exceptionally weak MAGA candidate in a state central to Republican power nationwide.  

57. The war in Iran and the role of the Israeli state, as well as the public battle over data centers and the looming economic crisis, have deepened fissures in MAGA as a section of leading MAGA figures pulls in a more populist and hardline “America First” direction. These problem areas for Trump show no sign of improving, and at some stage can get much worse. Marjorie Taylor Greene was the first to break away decisively when she suddenly resigned from Congress. While this was a key factor giving Trump reprieve from the Epstein Files scandal, in the longer term she can present new dangers to Trump’s grip on MAGA as part of an even further right and more populist trend. Then in June, Tucker Carlson announced he would no longer support the Republican Party, and alluded to forming his own party, launching a 10-point manifesto. Referring to El-Sayed saying tax dollars should be spent to fund healthcare for Americans not the Israeli state while standing in front of the American flag, Carlson made comments calling Abdul El-Sayed’s campaign “literally Trumpian.” 
58. But as we’ve emphasized in past material, while splits in the right give an objective opening for struggle and growth of the left, they will not automatically benefit the left and without a real left and clearly working-class alternative, can result in growth for extreme-right forces. Carlson’s flirting with support for El-Sayed should not be seen as a leftward shift, and the development of a new more hardcore “America First” formation would be a serious threat to workers and the left. The extreme-right political ecosystem, which is much more openly white nationalist, Christian nationalist, and in some cases fascist, is also gaining influence among a small but notable layer of young men in particular. This includes the so-called “groypers” who follow Nick Fuentes, who has become much more critical of Trump, and are gaining influence among young right wingers on campuses, which could point towards a further rightward trajectory in the party apparatus in the medium term. 
59. With the height of the movement against the genocide in Gaza well behind us, at least for now, and with no significant movement against the Iran war, there is a vacuum that a section of the far-right around figures such as Tucker Carlson are attempting to fill with US nationalism, conspiracy theories, and antisemitic views. This has gotten some sympathies and even support among a small section of the left who have moved in a confused and demoralized direction. Some on the left may argue for alliances with right populist forces on AI, or other issues like the Iran War, or US aid to Israel, which we should firmly and unequivocally oppose. 
60. Trump has tried to leave the door open on the question of running for a third term, but this would be very explosive and is highly unlikely to become concretely posed. The succession battle in the party will ramp up after November and there is no obvious successor waiting in the wings. The potential for more crises on Trump’s watch, especially a more serious economic crisis, will only complicate things for his prospective successors.
61. At this stage, the front-runners are JD Vance and Marco Rubio, but it is still very early and the trajectory of the Trump administration and wider political developments will shape the race. Vance, despite being the #2 for US imperialism, has attempted to distance himself from the Iran war, not-so-subtly promoting leaks as to his alleged lack of support for the operation, and has maintained a friendly relationship with Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, etc. Despite Carlson and co’s current feud with Trump, it is possible that Carlson and the more Trump-critical wing of MAGA could be brought back into the fold around a Vance presidential run. However the possibility of a real far-right break from the Republican Party by these figures can also not be discounted. Rubio has staked out his ground as a foreign policy hawk on Cuba, Venezuela, and Iran and several reports have suggested that Trump himself leans towards anointing Rubio over the VP. Other figures will also be angling to carve out political space for themselves in the coming months. In particular, economic crisis, imperial defeat, and political gridlock could boost the appeal of an “anti-politician” currently on MAGA’s sidelines. Similar, though far less acute, conditions propelled Trump’s initial rise.  

62. A section of the capitalist class is likely praying for a more stable hand to take over the Republican Party. The options are somewhat limited because there has essentially been a purge inside the party over the past decade against the anti-Trump wing, but there is speculation that a figure like Georgia governor Brian Kemp could be a frontrunner. Others will hold out hope that Rubio will emerge as a neocon Trojan horse within Trump 2.0. Today however, 62% of Republicans identify as MAGA supporters, compared to 38% in September 2022, or if you look at adult US citizens overall 19% are MAGA supporters today compared to 11% in 2022. So while Trump and the Republicans are in hot water, at this stage it is very hard to see how this will translate into a big appetite among the Republican base for support for a candidate resembling the pre-Trump party establishment. 
63. While Trump’s endorsement will be the most important, he will not be able to fully control the succession battle. The key lines of debate in the Republican Party will likely include the Iran war and in particular the US relationship with Israel, which has become a central question in US politics including for a big section of the far right. Overall, it is still extremely early in the process and we should maintain open perspectives on how things can develop.

State Of The Democratic Party & The Balance Of Power

64. Consciousness around the Democratic Party remains contradictory. Despite the degree of crisis for the regime and Trump’s unpopularity, the Democratic Party has still managed to be viewed slightly more unfavorably than the Republicans and continues to struggle to win over working-class voters. The Democrats have been an extraordinarily weak opposition to Trump. They have done very little to stop his agenda, and where they have put up a semblance of a fight, such as with the government shutdowns, it has harmed workers and didn’t even get what they wanted. At the same time, there is a deep anger from huge sections of society about the utterly corrupt warmonger in the White House, which will drive support for the Democrats in an attempt to push back against Trump and his deeply reactionary agenda.
65. If the Democrats win a majority in Congress, the immediate question will be what they use it for. Gains for the Democrats can lead to limited raised expectations among working people, as currently many see the Democrats as having their “hands tied” by the Republicans’ control of all three branches of government, but these may quickly be dashed by the Democrats’ inaction, especially considering the volatile political situation and bubbling anger amongst ordinary people, particularly young people. Additionally, Trump’s defeat in the midterms can play a role in increased confidence to struggle due to a feeling that the regime can be pushed back. Impeaching Trump and other figures in his administration may be high on the priority list of the party establishment, which will likely open a messy and protracted process. The Trump administration would likely respond in kind, with federal agency investigations and possible Department of Justice prosecutions of Democratic-aligned figures and groups. We absolutely support taking Trump out of office, including through impeachment; however, in the absence of a mass movement that can change the dynamic, impeachment proceedings will be a spectacle used by the Democrats as a distraction. For these reasons, it is likely that the Democrats will use this to pose as standing up to Trump while doing very little concretely to actually push back on his agenda. After two rounds of impeachment in Trump’s first term, there will likely be some debate within the party about how the Democrats should balance a third impeachment attempt with trying to pass legislation.
66. As of October 2, Democrats have made leads in key Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas—all considered to be consistently red states. If the Democrats win a majority, the size of the margin will also determine the degree to which different wings of the party—both the progressives and the more right-wing Democrats—can assert themselves and cause problems for the party leadership. The establishment will point to the filibuster and Trump’s veto power to try to explain away their impotence as part of their campaign to ramp up lesser-evilism and demobilize struggle in favor of pointing to 2028. This will have success among many, especially more liberal elements, but a more advanced layer who see the Democrats for what they are will continue to grow. We will need to connect with this layer and push back against the tide of lesser-evilism, pointing to the role of working-class struggle in pushing back Trump and the right wing. An even broader layer, disgusted by both parties’ maneuvering, including potential investigations amid continued economic hardship, could turn to an apolitical outsider candidate in either party—or, less likely, outside them—in 2028. 
67. The debate on the direction of the Democratic Party has been reopened with a new wave of “democratic socialists” and progressives making gains in the primaries. As of mid-August, of 282 DSA-backed candidates 123 (43.6%) won their primaries. This wave is bigger than in 2018 and will very likely mean five new DSA members joining AOC and Rashida Tlaib in Congress and dozens of others in state and local offices. Of the 282 candidates, not all of them are DSA members themselves and only 29 were endorsed by national DSA as opposed to local chapters, which have widely varying endorsement standards and processes. The rise of these campaigns, which has provoked hysteria in the corporate and especially the right-wing media, is an important development that shows space for left-wing ideas and hunger for a fightback. 
68. This wave is politically broad, including figures like Chris Rabb in Philadelphia, a DSA member with a relatively strong platform, Darializa Avila Chevalier in NYC who was a Palestine solidarity activist recruited to run by the Justice Democrats, Angie Nixon in Florida who joined DSA in June 2026 and considers herself a capitalist, and dozens of others running much less politically coherent campaigns on the state and local level. These campaigns were largely driven by demands about affordability, anti-AIPAC sentiment, and calls to abolish ICE. But their platforms were also uneven, for example some not including the demand for Medicare for All or demands around fighting racism, sexism, and transphobia despite Trump’s escalating offensive. These victories come on the back of Zohran Mamdani’s win in NYC, and while many see their campaigns as modeled off of his, none had the same level of dynamism, volunteer base, or profile for their key demands.
69. In many ways the rise of the democratic socialists says less about the candidates themselves and more about utter hatred and frustration with the Democratic establishment which has moved to the right and is seen as having very little to offer working-class and young voters. Compared to 2016 and 2020, the Democratic establishment is in a much weaker position to neutralize this threat from inside their own party, but the rightward movement of progressives and democratic socialists has done half this work for them.
70. We should be positive about the significance of these electoral victories and what they show about consciousness, while also being clear about the current trajectory of this trend. Zohran, as well as AOC and the section of DSA’s leadership which is attempting to uncritically rally the organization behind them, are moving to the right by doubling down on electoralism and the drive to reform the Democratic Party. None of the new elected officials are putting forward any sort of a movement-building approach.
71. Instead, they and the leadership of DSA continue to embrace an incrementalist and pragmatic approach, tied as they are to a wing of the labor bureaucracy as well as to the “progressive” wing of the Democrats, which they see as realistic compared to revolutionary politics. This pragmatism is why AOC dismissed the powerful social movements of the 2010s, including Justice For George Floyd and #MeToo, as “woke 1.0 was crazy,” when defending them would be politically inconvenient. But it is revolutionary Marxism that is the more realistic approach to transforming society, rooted in the historical experience of the victories and losses of our class. The window is increasingly open for us to differentiate our revolutionary socialist politics from DSA electeds’ “democratic socialism” in words but above all in action.

72. Zohran’s honeymoon is deep and ongoing, with his popularity having actually increased in office; a Siena Poll in August cited an extremely high approval rating of 69% among voters in NYC. His focus on “good governance” and the contrast with both the corrupt former Adams administration and the current ultra-reactionary Trump in the White House also means that expectations are relatively modest. Mamdani has managed to make progress on some of his campaign promises including introducing some rent control measures, free childcare for 2,000 (out of 60,000) two year-olds nominally as a step toward universal childcare, and has pursued a tax on second homes. There are fairly widespread illusions in his approach toward finding common ground with Trump, most recently meeting with him about investments in NYC housing infrastructure, completely ignoring Trump’s history as a racist real-estate mogul. To many it appears this smooth-tongued strategy will be fruitful in winning concessions under Trump, but in essence reasoning with Trump on this level is a dead-end approach.
73. But we should be clear that these reforms are very limited and that Mamdani has also abided by a series of “red lines” defined by the ruling class. These include not touching the massive NYPD budget, avoiding any substantial changes to education, and in practice defending the anti-strike Taylor law in the name of defending “collective bargaining.” He is also avoiding confrontation with Trump; for example, toeing the line on the ending of TPS, where his strategy seems to be individual phone calls and closed door meetings with Trump. He also recently made clear that he did not encourage protests against Netanyahu when he came to NYC for the September UN meeting, despite literally promising to arrest him on the campaign trail.
74. Zohran’s emphasis on “delivering” for New Yorkers is also a weakness, as this is in place of any real focus on building a movement to fight for or defend victories. In the face of more ruling-class opposition which will inevitably come, in particular if he pursues more far-reaching elements of his platform such as a $30 minimum wage, this approach will not be sufficient to win even the types of very limited concessions he has focused on up to now. This will be especially true in the event of an economic crisis where the ruling class will be demanding (and expecting Zohran to deliver) austerity measures. Our Time, the organization launched out of Mamdani’s campaign ostensibly to turn his volunteer army into an ongoing movement, unsurprisingly turned out to be an uninspiring lobbying apparatus, and has now announced that it is dissolving. This is exactly what we warned of during his campaign and in the months following.
75. Zohran’s endorsement of rotten establishment Governor Kathy Hochul and support for Hakeem Jeffries’s bid for Speaker of the House are also clear indications of his shift to the right. AOC is clearly trying to ready the ground for a potential 2028 run by moderating her image, making statements like “woke 1.0 was crazy” in the midst of the Corey Ruiz protests and refusing to endorse Francesa Hong in Wisconsin. They are doubling down on the strategy of reforming the Democratic Party and on the idea that the party is and can continue to be a “big tent.” 
76. A CNN Poll recently found that 34% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning adults identify as democratic socialists. While this is undoubtedly based on a shallow and very loose application of this term, it still presents a major problem for the establishment and opportunity for Marxists. While a section of the Democratic establishment are predicting (and desperately hoping) that the democratic socialists will lose their elections or just disappear, others will take a longer term view. While this may include some populist or “progressive” overtures, ultimately their strategy will primarily be based on ramping up the pressure of co-optation to the maximum.
77. In 2020, AOC ruffled feathers when she said, “in any other country, Joe Biden and I would not be in the same party, but in America, we are.” The reality is the tent will endlessly expand to accommodate the right wing of the party, but will strangle the left. The method of the Democratic Party has been to go all out to crush the left-wing opposition inside the party, and if that’s not effective, to then pivot to co-opting them. They are looking for their openings with DSA-backed elected officials, while also hoping to benefit from this democratic socialist momentum through November. Obama’s phone call to El-Sayed is an example, although El-Sayed is a non-DSA progressive
78. As we said in our 2025 convention US Perspectives document, “While disappointment in left Democrats is inevitable, the effect it has on consciousness is not predetermined.” The disappointment with Bernie Sanders and the Squad, while paling in comparison to the seething anger at the establishment, is a factor in the broad unfavorability of the Democratic Party. But this has not translated into concrete conclusions being drawn about the need for workers to break from the Democrats, primarily due to the absence of the subjective factor, leadership. We should continue making positive demands on popular left Democrats and outlining what it would take to win their program. However, we should not just repeat our “Bernie tactic” today without adjusting to new conditions. 
79. Trotsky’s Transitional Program explains the need for a “bridge” between immediate demands (which are conditioned by existing consciousness), and the need for socialist revolution. This overall approach is crucial to our transitional method and of course must be applied concretely in each situation. The new wave of left Democrats must be understood in the wider context of increasing capitalist crisis and inter-imperialist conflict which will bring down massive pressure. In developing our transitional approach toward these candidates, we need to more quickly explain the limits of reformism and raise the need for a new party based on the current right-ward trajectory of these candidates as well as the experience of Bernie Sanders and the Squad, who despite huge enthusiasm around them failed to effectively stand up to the party establishment.
80. This means that while being constructive and patient with those who are excited about these campaigns we should be more forthright with our points about the limitations of these candidates and the need to organize to win their platforms and build a new party with or without them. We want to reach those who are newly excited about socialist politics, but also tap into the massive frustration with the two-party system and reach those who are drawing conclusions about the need for more fundamental, revolutionary change.
81. If they all win their elections in November, there will be seven DSA members in Congress, which will pose the question of how, and even if, they should use their leverage as a distinct group. Some, like AOC, will likely be opposed to any sort of real coordination. Reliance on backroom deals and negotiations will be a dead end and we should raise the need for an uncompromising movement-building approach. We should go further than abstract calls, spelling out concrete steps they could take toward this end if they were serious about winning their platforms, as our material has done. During the Bernie Sanders campaigns what scared the ruling class more than any specific policy demand was his rhetoric about being the “organizer in chief” and the slogan “not me, us.” We should stress the need for a common platform and a coordinated class-struggle approach from DSA candidates, which should be linked to points about the limits of DSA and their approach to elected office.
82. An AOC run for the Democratic nomination would be a huge development in US politics. While it would likely result in a sharp rightward shift on her part in which she would attempt to run as a “safe pair of progressive hands” for the ruling class, it would also open up important, if potentially challenging, opportunities for Marxists to intervene. Unlike Bernie 2016 or 2020—which despite the serious contradiction of staying within the framework of the corporate Democratic Party promoted social struggle and the idea of a “political revolution against the billionaire class”—AOC would be starting from a point of already having accommodated herself with the corporate establishment, rather than waging a struggle against it. Nevertheless, her campaign will likely still stand in sharp contrast to the right wing of the establishment and could gain broad support—especially if there is a backdrop of significant struggle. 
83. We will need more discussion on our exact approach toward an AOC 2028 campaign, but should prioritize following and engaging with the discussion and debate about this and about “socialism” which will undoubtedly be unfolding on a mass scale over the next period. We should be prepared to make sharp agitational points both against the right wing’s anti-communist propaganda, as well as to draw out points about AOC’s brand of democratic socialism vs. revolutionary socialism. 
84. If AOC does run in 2028, our approach will need to start with discussions on perspectives along with an assessment of the character of the campaign as well as those getting activated around it. The establishment will be weighing up their options and likely will test a few possible candidates to beat AOC before converging on their preferred choice. We should comment on these developments and continue to raise our demand for a new party which can gain an echo as the pro-corporate, pro-war Democratic Party pushes its agenda.  

DSA

85. Following their recent wave of growth DSA has now passed 120,000 members, surpassing the Socialist Party of America of Eugene Debs to make it the largest socialist organization in US history. YDSA reports 159 chapters at schools and campuses, and is quite active and dynamic on some campuses. Only a small fraction of these 120,000 DSA members are active, but it nonetheless speaks to the very significant openings facing socialists and the left. Outside of electoral victories, though, it has failed to assert its influence in any coordinated way in mass movements. While it is undeniably an important hub for left-wing union activists, DSA frequently tails the union bureaucracy in labor struggles and there is a significant overlap between the organization and the left-labor bureaucracy and staffers. 
86. A section of the DSA leadership will argue for a totally uncritical, cheerleading approach towards DSA electeds when they enter Congress, as well as a potential AOC run in the Democratic primary. At the same time, the organization is politically broad and also has a growing ultra-left and “campist” wing. This is not surprising considering the rise of ultra-left ideas among a section of young people today, also reflected in RCA’s “communist” turn, and the growth of campist, Stalinist organizations like PSL. Ultra-leftism and reformism are two sides of the same coin, and both trends are able to co-exist inside DSA as the ultra-left takes a minimum/maximum approach to program rather than the transitional approach we argue for. In reality, an approach of abstract sloganeering in general, as well as putting forward ultra-left demands like abolishing prisons or abolishing the police, can actually provide cover for the reformist wing.
87. Debates have already opened up about the potential for an AOC presidential run, how DSA should relate to this, and the role of accountability which we should weigh in on publicly over the coming months. While a section of DSA does, in theory, support the idea of a break with the Democrats, this position is relegated to a convention motion that is dusted off once every two years without concrete steps in that direction. That said, the development of a new party in the US would very likely involve significant sections of those in and around DSA, even if this is unlikely to develop through DSA’s formal structures in the near term. It is no surprise that the prospect of an AOC run has led to turmoil, considering her votes to fund the Israeli state’s Iron Dome sparked massive debate and were a major factor in DSA withdrawing their endorsement of her. 
88. We need to be very clear that the current direction of key DSA electeds means serious capitulations and betrayals are inevitable, potentially opening up major divisions which will mean a bigger audience for Marxist ideas. It is also not ruled out that a formal split takes place in DSA at some stage as the leadership continues to move to the right and the left-wing caucuses along with a large enough section of the membership opposes it. We want to put forward an independent working-class position to distinguish ourselves both from the right wing of DSA, but also from the ultra-left who may argue against DSA’s current electoral approach in a way that is dismissive of wider working-class consciousness and serves to turn DSA towards a more insular approach aimed at those already on the organized left. 
89. We should have a definite but tactically flexible orientation to those in and around DSA in the coming period which is likely to involve significant debates on key questions facing the socialist movement. Our key focus should be weighing in on the battle of ideas taking place while not limiting our audience to activists inside DSA.
90. The midterms and afterwards, on-and-off, the lead-up to 2028, will dominate the capitalist media and be a massive source of discussion and debate in US society as a whole over the coming period. The growth of DSA, popularity of Zohran and a new wave of democratic socialists, alongside a new “red scare” from the right, is opening up mass discussion in US society. We want to be part of this battle of ideas. At the same time we should not expect the elections to cut across the potential for other struggles. US society is full of combustible material and the elections will be far from the only terrain for political radicalization.

Struggle & Consciousness

Anti-Trump Movement, Economic Crisis & War

91. While Trump’s attacks have continued, the generalized anti-Trump movement has ebbed as liberal organizations and figures have, as expected, turned their focus toward electing Democrats in the midterms. As we anticipated, No Kings has essentially transformed into a get out the vote operation heading into the elections, announcing an October 17 day of action (the first since March and longest gap between two No Kings Days so far) called “No Kings: Vote Early.” 
92. But mounting problems for Trump—including the war in Iran and its economic consequences, as well as the potential for a more generalized economic crisis—can spark major upheaval in US society. The regime’s ongoing decline paired with its defeat in the midterms can also boost struggle, strengthening confidence that this weakened regime can be pushed back.
93. Workers and poor people will undoubtedly be made to shoulder the burden of a deepened economic crisis, which would pour fuel onto the fire of an already polarized and deeply unequal society. While consciousness will be uneven if there is an economic crash, the high level of existing anger at the billionaires (especially in Big Tech) could mean struggle emerging more quickly than the years-long “stunning period” after 2008 before the Battle of Wisconsin and Occupy, and on a higher level. Struggle in reaction to a new financial crisis may also express itself through the labor movement, given the steps forward in the labor movement since 2008. Our role will be key in raising the need for bold, class-struggle strategy and organization while struggling alongside workers and youth, and pointing to socialist solutions to capitalism’s multitude of crises.
94. The far right will also undoubtedly be looking to build their forces in the case of an economic crash. Racist and xenophobic scapegoating could find more fertile ground in the case of an economic crisis where the ruling class would be attempting to impose massive austerity. In that case, a further polarizing arena will open up between extreme anti-immigrant forces on the one hand and those fighting for working-class solidarity on the other. 
95. There is a huge opening for campaigns taking on the rich along clear class lines, as shown by the Prop 40 wealth tax initiative in California, despite the fact that this campaign was opposed by the teachers’ union and Planned Parenthood. The space and hunger for these types of initiatives will continue to grow, the central question will be whether the left and labor movement will seize the initiative or allow the extreme right to capture the anti-establishment mood.  
96. The military quagmires facing US imperialism, paired with their inability to put boots on the ground for fear of sparking a mass rebellion, do not mean they will walk away from their aim of preparing US society for war. The decline of US imperialism points to a further doubling down on nationalism and war propaganda by the ruling class and both of their political parties. However, their attempts to instill nationalism into the US working class will not be straightforward and can open space for the development of the anti-war movement. These unfolding processes will usher in larger class battles where a genuine anti-imperialist, internationalist intervention by Marxists will be crucial.

97. While mass pro-Palestine street protests, as well as student encampments which were the most developed expression of the struggle in the US, have ebbed from their height in the US and internationally, the Palestine solidarity movement has still continued at a simmer and its impact on consciousness and politics is ongoing. Since the crushing of the encampments, fear of repression has held back a resurgence of that level of confrontation. However consciousness around Palestine remains high and Palestine solidarity remains one of the most likely starting points for the development of a broader anti-war movement in the U.S. In the context of this ebb, people have looked to other means to fight back. The desire to stick it to AIPAC was a major driver behind the wave of left-Democrat primary victories. Cultural flare-ups around Palestine like the Macklemore/Ed Sheeran controversy have had a higher profile than ever before. These aren’t ideal terrains for struggle but they give a sense of “doing something” at a time when other avenues of struggle don’t seem viable. This stresses the importance of a bold fightback against state repression to rebuild the confidence of the movement, and lay the foundation for a mass anti-war movement. We should also be prepared for new flare-ups, including around new developments in the West Bank and calls for strike action by dockworkers internationally linked to a new Flotilla.

Immigration & The Struggle Against Repression

98. ICE’s mass immigrant deportation drive continues to be the sharpest edge of Trump’s attacks. This of course is fully backed by the Republicans in Congress who authorized $75 billion for ICE in the Big Beautiful Bill in 2025 on top of its ongoing funding.
99. While the military-style invasions of major cities stopped after the January 23 general strike in Minneapolis as well as Trump’s deportation machine slowing down temporarily, arrests have since ramped up to a record level. ICE arrested nearly 51,000 people in August, setting a record arrest total for the third straight month. Texas and Florida alone accounted for nearly 20,000 arrests in July. There is increased cooperation between police departments and ICE in many parts of the country, as well as from TSA, leading to a large number of arrests in airports.
100. It is telling that while arrests and detentions continue to rise, deportations remain at 1,200 per day. This is in part because many of the people being arrested have cases pending to stay in the US; i.e. they are known to the authorities and are pursuing a legal process, have no criminal record, and legally cannot be deported. As noted earlier, Temporary Protected Status (TPS) has been ended or phased out for more than a dozen countries, affecting over one million people, and in effect nearly ending the program as a whole. This can lead to more arrests but also hundreds of thousands of people simply leaving “voluntarily.” Trump is also now giving immigration officers authority to deny green cards to immigrants who are using public benefits like Medicaid and SNAP, which could push hundreds of thousands to disenroll from these vital social benefits.
101. Meanwhile, the conditions in detention centers are a national scandal. Horrible food and filthy unsanitary conditions contributed to the hunger strikes in Delaney Hall in New Jersey, which in turn sparked solidarity protests outside the center earlier in the year that clashed with ICE and police. Hunger strikes have been taking place at detention centers across the country, with hundreds if not thousands of detainees participating. This has been such a problem for ICE that, horrifically, a Texas facility recently obtained permission to force-feed a hunger-striking Cuban detainee with a rare, nonconsensual surgical procedure. New reporting also shows how detainees at “Alligator Alcatraz” were kept in tiny cells, in reality cages. Three people have died in Delaney Hall since it reopened in 2025 and a total of 59 have died nationally since the start of 2025 in the sprawling and growing detention system.
102. But overall, the scale of protest against ICE has been far lower since the end of January. This certainly is connected to the end of the invasions of major cities and ICE’s increasingly sophisticated and targeted approach. It can also reflect a fear by some of the ramped up drive to criminalize anti-ICE protesters combined with liberal politicians and the media turning away from the issue in the run-up to the midterms. 
103. At a certain stage, however, ICE’s atrocities could lead to a new wave of protest. More murders by ICE, especially if they are caught on camera like those of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, can definitely spark struggle, as could new revelations about conditions in detention centers or further organizing within them like at Delaney Hall. Given the experience of January, explosions can more quickly gravitate toward working-class methods of struggle, but this is not automatic and will require a number of dynamic factors, as Minneapolis showed. In response to an ICE surge in Danbury, CT a day of “No Work, No School, No Shopping” was called by immigrant rights groups and immigrant-owned small businesses which saw the closing of 60 small businesses and a 2,000 person march in this very small city. These struggles will provide an important hearing for Marxist ideas.
104. Inseparable from the resumed ICE offensive is the ramping up of repression by the Trump administration against the anti-ICE movement, which in turn is part of a wider wave of repression directed at the left and the labor movement. The revelations about DHS infiltration of protests and meetings in the run-up to January 23 coming on top of the indictments of the Minnesota 15 and other indictments and convictions (Prairieland, Spokane, Michigan 8) has galvanized a layer of activists. Twelve different unions, plus the Minneapolis regional labor council and the statewide Minnesota AFL-CIO, endorsed the Minneapolis October 3 action in defense of the Minnesota 15 which is extremely positive and should be pointed to as an example nationally. The campaign in defense of the MN15 also called a national and international day of action on October 3, a step forward partly in response to our urging.
105. From the publication of Trump’s infamous NSPM-7 last fall, we have insisted that while the far right in power has a wide range of targets, the labor movement, despite its overall weakened state, is certainly in the crosshairs, and can be seen as the ultimate target of the far right. One million federal workers were stripped of their collective bargaining rights last year. As the Guardian reports “…Republicans are launching fishing expeditions against unions backing President Trump’s political opponents.” This includes subpoenas of financial records of the Communications Workers (CWA) and Service Employees (SEIU) as part of the grand jury leading up to the indictments of the Minnesota 15. The AFL-CIO, SEIU, and the Minneapolis Federation of Educators, along with the DSA, Socialist Alternative, and others were of course included on the now infamous “pinwheel of honor” of organizations claimed to be “council members” of Direct Action Minnesota (DAMN). GEO Local 3550 has been subpoenaed by a federal grand jury in connection to the Michigan 8 case. It has also been reported by Labor Notes and others that the House of Representatives education and workforce committee is investigating the AFT, UAW, and two railway unions affiliated to the Teamsters on the basis that these unions are allegedly illegally funding the Democrats.
106. We have uniquely pointed to the necessity of building a mass movement of working-class-centered protest to defend the Minnesota 15. We have also created the Anti-Repression Fighting Fund as part of the effort to build a wider collective defense against state repression. A key test will come with the actual trial of the MN15. Mass mobilization in the Twin Cities and protests around the country can be critical to defeating the Trump administration in this case and increasing confidence to restart the movement in the streets. In addition to MN15 solidarity events, the No Kings March in late October, unfortunately but unsurprisingly focused on the elections, could also be an opportunity to raise the profile of this critical struggle and in particular to fundraise.

Data Centers, AI & The Climate

107. Mass discussion has opened up in US society about artificial intelligence, and the biggest arena for this so far has been the struggle against data center projects. More than 75 data center build-outs worth $130 billion were successfully blocked in the first three months of 2026, and hundreds of data center bans or moratoriums have been passed across the country. The largely “bipartisan” opposition to data centers shows the possibilities for working-class fightback to cut across polarized political lines, though we should be clear that this cannot be based on an opportunistic dropping of a left-wing program to reach unity with the right or collaboration with far right leaders. Bernie Sanders’ decision to share the stage with Steve Bannon at a recent anti-AI “Pro-Human Assembly”—and worse to do so completely uncritically—should be clearly opposed.  
108. There are also wider discussions about the role of AI in society, its impact on jobs, the economy, education, social life, and more. A section of the AI industry—including engineers and researchers, as well as Big Tech bosses like Dario Amodei, Elon Musk, and Sam Altman—have made calls to “slow down” AI development in an attempt to quell fears and cut across the deepening  “techlash,” but also to set the stage for the existing AI monopolies to gain regulatory capture of the AI markets. To varying degrees they warn of the danger of humans losing control of AI and other apocalyptic scenarios. Trump and other AI investors like Marc Andreessen take the other side of this debate, preferring completely unregulated development. Neither of these approaches benefit working people.
109. This has put pressure on both parties heading into the midterms, raising the temperature on the issue with little time to act. Trump has again doubled down, insisting that a “STRONG AND SMART (High IQ!) PRESIDENT” will be enough to keep things in check, and (on a more serious note) lashing out at the idea of slowing down in the context of the crucial AI race with China. Trump established a “Super Intelligence Force” in part to recommend what role government should play around AI, but ultimately the trajectory points toward industry “self-regulation” and plowing forward with AI development. Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, has put forward a bill that would permanently ban “superintelligent” AI and temporarily pause advanced AI development until safety rules are introduced. According to a Data for Progress poll of 1,300 people, this is supported by 68%. A separate poll found that 63% of voters support a one-year moratorium on new AI data center construction. 
110. Incidents like the Hugging Face hack should make it clear that AI is more than just a “plagiarism machine”—we should also not dismiss how far this technology has already developed or could develop and the serious dangers this can represent. At the same time, we should be clear that the industry’s utopian hype and the apocalyptic warnings about human extinction within a decade are not realistic perspectives. But the history of war and environmental destruction shows that capitalists don’t need technology to be intelligent, let alone “superintelligent” to pose a threat to humanity itself. AI could of course also have significant benefits, especially in fields like medicine, if it were harnessed in the interests of the working class. However, under capitalism, the motivation for technological advancements is primarily in the interests of the ruling class, meaning for profit-making and reactionary ends like cutting jobs and making wars more lethal, with little regard for the risks and environmental consequences.

111. The desire to be among the survivors of the AI bubble pop has meant a high-speed race inside Big Tech to make the next breakthrough, in an industry with almost no regulation or protections. The AI race is also deeply linked to the inter-imperalist conflict between the US and China. But the tech billionaires are increasingly concerned about the level of public hostility. A serious incident with major harm to humans caused by their failure to control their own technology will cause them major problems and could contribute to bursting the bubble. Big Tech CEOs are desperate to maintain their domination over the development of new technology and those in the pro-regulation wing hope that new belated regulations on further AI growth can assist them in this. Of course, the idea that the tech billionaires should be the ones to determine the method of regulation and pace of AI development for the rest of humanity is farcical.
112. We should continue putting forward demands for a data center moratorium linked to demands for a massive green jobs program to build affordable housing, massively expand public transport, develop sustainable agriculture, and repair and modernize schools and infrastructure generally. We should also raise the demand for a moratorium on new AI development with our clearly-stated bottom line being that the private sector should not and cannot be trusted with developing AI technology either safely or for the good of working people and the planet. However, we should be clear eyed that the tech billionaires and the ruling class as a whole will do whatever they deem necessary to defend their interests. This must be linked to our call for public ownership of the tech industry under democratic workers control which could determine if and how AI should be developed and used and how it is regulated. It is important that we distinguish our calls for workers’ control from the potential for reactionary nationalizations done to bail out Big Tech in the event of an economic crash, and maintain US dominance in the AI race with China. 
113. Of course one of the most substantial negative impacts of AI is not a farther-off existential question, but the very immediate threat to the environment. The increased discussion in society about data centers and their water and energy use, along with a super El Niño weather pattern ushering in extreme weather and natural disasters, has the potential to spark a re-emergence of the climate movement. Strategies based on changing individual behavior have largely been pushed aside, and there is hunger especially among young people for a more radical, anti-billionaire approach. To be effective, a new, mass climate movement would need to cut its ties with the corporate Democratic Party, and fight to link up with the labor movement, including appealing to workers in the polluting industries with a program for a socialist green transition that defends wages, benefits, and union representation for workers.
114. Branches should continue to look for opportunities to intervene around anti-data center struggles and other struggles relating to AI and the climate, including the October 20 student walkouts being called by a new organization called Irreplaceable, if they gain momentum. In line with the process agreed by the 2025 National Convention, we will continue to discuss perspectives and our program and develop material on this important question which will undoubtedly continue to have massive impacts on US and global politics.

Struggles Against Oppression

112. There are a number of other arenas where struggle can emerge which we should be prepared to orient to. Because of the longer-term historic weakness of workers’ organizations and the lack of a fighting lead, struggles that emerge in this period often have a semi-spontaneous character and lack staying power. This also means that class struggle can develop in unexpected ways including new leaders emerging as “accidents” of history. This underscores the importance of a flexible approach and an understanding that developments, including the path to a new working-class party, will not play out in a schematic way.
113. The anti-feminist backlash in the beginning of this decade was one of the earliest symptoms of the reactionary turn of the ruling classes internationally. In the US, first came the receding of the movement, and then outright counterrevolution with the overturn of Roe v. Wade in 2022. Since Trump took office, this counterrevolution has gone even further.
114. The Trump administration continues to undermine access to reproductive care, push “traditional family values,” and weigh up ways to increase the birthrate. A recent lawsuit filed by the Louisiana attorney general at the US Supreme Court challenges the “shield laws” in Democrat-dominated states that protect doctors who send abortion pills in the mail to women seeking abortion in states where the procedure is banned.  Almost half a million women were essentially forced out of the workforce between January and August of 2025, with caregiving concerns and low pay cited as the top reasons, but also due to the sweeping federal layoffs. Black women lost a net total of 113,000 jobs in 2025. At the height of this, Black women accounted for 55% of all female job losses, despite making up only 14% of the female workforce. The widespread discussion that took place in society around the Lindsay Clancy trial also shows the vacuum that exists for discussion on issues like postpartum mental health, the deepening healthcare and mental health crisis in general, and the oppression of women in society more broadly. 
115. The illusion of progress towards equality for women has decisively fallen away. This undoubtedly has contributed to leftward radicalization among a section of people, in particular young women, many of whom are playing leading roles in wider struggle. In the absence of a mass feminist movement, many high-profile perpetrators of sexual violence have gotten off easy or gone completely unpunished. Now, quantity has turned into quality with the explosion of mass support and discussion triggered by Jane Doe’s lawsuit against seven rapists who were members of a fraternity at Cornell University.
116. This case, like the Epstein files and many other cases, is imbued with class anger at the wealth and power associated with an Ivy League fraternity, widely understood to have been a factor in shielding these perpetrators from punishment. This elite university has been exposed as covering for them, while at the same time cracking down on student Palestine solidarity protesters. The call to “expel and arrest rapists, not protesters” is extremely important and one that we should feature heavily in our material and activity as it clearly connects seemingly different sides of the rotten criminal “justice” system under capitalism. 
117. Student struggle has exploded internationally in France, Spain, Chile, and more. The cover-up of Jane Doe’s case has now sown the seeds for the next possible upsurge in student struggle in the US. On the October 8th national day of action, walkouts and rallies occurred at 100+ colleges and high schools. The protests were uneven across campuses, with larger walkouts at some campuses like UCLA and Brown in the hundreds or thousands. At Cornell, thousands rallied on October 5th, and over 100 students staged a seven hour sit-in later in the week, which they connected with an “economic blackout.” Student comrades should look to get involved in organizing around fighting sexual violence and raise the key role of the labor movement in escalating student movements. We want to be a part of this potential upsurge.

118. Like the #MeToo movement, the solidarity shared by many of the thousands declaring #IAmJaneDoe extends the movement beyond elite abusers to all corners of society. Gender oppression, and the sexual violence it gives rise to, is a ruling-class tool rooted in reactionary ideas injected into all classes. A renewed mass feminist movement must take on oppression everywhere, while aiming its fire at the ruling class whose interests that oppression serves. As part of this movement we must distinguish our socialist feminist program and strategy from mainstream liberal feminist ideas.
119. LGBTQ people, in particular trans people, continue to function as a central scapegoat for the Trump regime and the right wing, as evidenced by the recent release of a “study” associating support for trans rights with “left-wing authoritarianism.” The midterm elections have also shone a light on both the extremely reactionary approach of the right, and the total uselessness of the Democrats. Elon Musk has spent $100 million on anti-trans attack ads, despite the fact that a significant number of Democratic Party candidates have rolled over and dropped any defense of trans rights anyway. There is an understandable climate of fear among many trans people, with one survey suggesting that roughly 400,000 trans adults fled red states in the six months after the 2024 election and another 1.2 million were considering such a move. However, these reactionary developments will also serve as the whip of counter-revolution for an important section of queer people. The same poll found that 20% of LGBTQ people and 42% of transgender people have joined or started participating in LGBTQ advocacy or activism, a promising sign which can be built on.
120. Extreme, and increasingly overt, racism continues to be a central feature of this administration, which is leading the counter-revolution against gains won by oppressed people in movements of the 60s and 70s. The struggle in Madison following the police murder of Corey Ruiz in July was the biggest resurgence of the Black liberation struggle since the George Floyd rebellion. This particular struggle quickly lost steam due to a lack of any organized plan for escalation, which gave the Democrat controlled city government an opening to successfully shut down the main encampment. However, this development, in addition to the sporadic protests and walkouts responding to the horrifically underinvestigated death of Nolan Wells, does show that there is a mood to fight back. Police brutality, vigilante violence, and other racist harassment will compound and explode into a more qualitative re-emergence of struggle against anti-Black racism at some stage.
121. Even if struggles against oppression fail to take on a sustained mass character in the near term, there will undoubtedly be opportunities for specific initiatives and more local struggles which we should orient to. This can be especially true among young people who are less weighed down by the disappointments and defeats of the past. We should also continue to write material and discuss the Marxist approach to fighting oppression and our program in branches to prepare the organization for future battles.

Labor

121. The Trump administration’s attacks, including removing union rights for one million federal workers and now threats from DHS, has in general been met with limited resistance from the established labor movement. But despite Trump’s anti-union offensive, unions remain very popular. While new organizing has been pushed back and strike numbers are lower than their post-pandemic peaks, there is still momentum in parts of the labor movement and hunger among a new generation to join its ranks. This was demonstrated by the largest Labor Notes yet, and important strikes this year including: nurses in NYC, Boston and a number of other cities, the San Francisco teachers, and by workers on the Long Island Railroad. Trump has singled out teachers’ unions, and federal cuts will lead to huge battles in public education. Most significant were the political strikes and sick-outs against attacks on immigrants that took place in the Twin Cities, Madison, and North Carolina over the winter, the first of which being the most decisive pushback against the Trump regime so far.
122. The union leadership continues to serve as a major brake on struggle, however they can be pushed to fight when faced with mass pressure from the rank and file. The general strike in Minneapolis—despite its limitations including the lack of participation by the “heavy battalions” of the labor movement (workers in manufacturing, logistics, transportation, etc.)—is evidence of this. While on the whole they managed to weasel out of a real struggle on May Day, this was not pre-determined and the existence of the initial call for a national day of “No Work, No School, No Shopping” on May 1st showed the degree of pressure a section of the left labor bureaucracy was feeling.
123. The close relationship between the unions and the Democratic Party continues to be a key ideological and material source of conservatism and restraint on the unions that produces little to no results for workers. This will continue to be a source of tension, as we are seeing unfold in California around the Prop 40 tax on billionaires. In August some 1,000 AFL-CIO delegates voted almost unanimously for Yes on 40, while Democratic Party tops were able to pressure the leaders of three key unions to back the “No on 40” campaign. 
124. This era of climate catastrophe, militarism, and war will place extreme pressure on the working class, its organizations, and leadership. The tendency of some union leaders—for example Teamsters President Sean O’Brien—to bow down to Trump and throw sections of their own membership as well as the wider class under the bus, will unfortunately not be an anomaly. We can see similar pressures exerting themselves as big sections of the building trades leadership (including some so-called left leaders) point toward the data center boom as a boom for workers and unions despite its huge unpopularity among the broader working class.
125. The importance of even a small number of Marxist cadre in a union or workplace is hard to overstate. Inside of their unions, workers will continue to challenge old leaders, a process which we have seen playing out inside of NALC. We should also follow developments inside of the UAW, including the upcoming leadership election in late October. 
126. While the call for a 2028 general strike is much too late considering the Trump regime’s war path, it is now getting closer and will likely gain more attention in the media and among left-leaning union activists. We should be pointing to the need for the labor movement to step up the fight against Trump in the here and now, while positively linking this to the call for strike action in 2028 and the need to make May 1, 2028 a true national general strike linked to clear demands and a broader plan for escalating action, rather than limiting it to a one-off largely symbolic action. 

Conclusion

115. The period we are living through will undoubtedly be remembered as an important turning point in history. The rise of Trump and the escalating crises now facing this regime reflect the deeper rot of US imperialism. The tech billionaires are driving the world toward an even more reactionary future, with an AI race driven by the conflict between US and Chinese imperialism. The Trump regime, while likely to be knocked back in the midterms, will continue its onslaught on workers and oppressed people in the US and internationally. The Democratic Party will offer no real alternative for workers and the poor. 
116. But the future envisioned by the billionaires will not be accepted without resistance. This is already apparent in the opposition to the massive data center buildout that is underway, as well as the mass resistance to ICE which will re-emerge at some stage. It was the working class that pushed Trump’s offensive back decisively during the ICE surge in Minnesota, and the working class which can push back coming attacks whether that be austerity in the face of an economic crash, the rising threat of AI in the hands of the tech billionaires, or other attacks. More struggles, including on a mass scale, will emerge as capitalist crises deepen and Trump’s overreach continues. The decisive question for the development of these struggles will be the role of working-class and socialist leadership. This period will present both real pressures and challenges for Marxists, but also significant opportunities to grow our forces and impact the course of struggles with a correct orientation and revolutionary audacity. The choice between socialism or barbarism has never been more stark, now is the time to step up the fight for a socialist United States and world.