Nearly one year into the most reactionary federal government in modern US history, cracks at every level of Trump’s coalition are getting wider and deeper.
November’s local and statewide elections, largely seen as a referendum on Trump, showed significant gains for Democrats in spite of their own deep crisis. The attempted cover-up of the Epstein files by Trump and his dutiful Justice Department has enraged millions, and less than half of Republican voters approve of his handling of the issue. The near-unanimous vote by the House of Representatives to release the files was a rare instance of Congressional Republicans defying their party’s increasingly authoritarian leader, even if Trump did formally endorse the vote at the eleventh hour.
Worst of all for Trump are the stormy economic prospects and beginnings of a recession in large parts of the economy which, as always under capitalism, will hit working-class and poor people the hardest, and immigrants, women, and people of color disproportionately so. Two conservative Supreme Court justices have appeared skeptical of Trump’s use of “emergency powers” to impose tariffs, and 47% of Republicans think the tariffs are making inflation worse. Trump is still decisively at the head of MAGA, but his overall approval rating continues to decline and the administration’s list of problems is growing.
At the same time, the thoroughly barbaric, reactionary offensive of the regime continues to plow forward. After recent setbacks for Trump many in the liberal-leaning media have rushed to begin calling him a “lame duck.” Unfortunately for working and oppressed people in the US and around the world, however, Trump is far from a lame duck. And prematurely thinking that he is would be a dangerous underestimation that can serve to disarm the type of mass working-class struggle that is still very much needed against this anti-immigrant, anti-trans, anti-worker, and highly motivated, far-right administration.
Reactionary Offensive Continues Despite Falling Support
Significant sections of the US ruling class got behind Trump’s comeback in 2024 because much of his agenda is broadly in line with the ruling class’ needs in the new post-neoliberal era of capitalism dominated by rising inter-imperialist competition. They knew he would go too far for some of their liking on certain things like tariffs and immigration. However, Trump’s commitment to a ruthless reassertion of nationalism and “national interest,” reactionary gender norms, militarism, climate deregulation, and a massive strengthening of the repressive state apparatus remain highly attractive to big sections of the ruling class. A big part of the reason for the extremely rapid drive to consolidate Trump’s authoritarian power grab over the last year is not because the regime thought it would be popular, but precisely the opposite; because they knew the accomplishment of much of their agenda would make the administration less popular.
ICE and Customs and Border Protection’s offensive has now expanded further with invasions in Charlotte, Raleigh, New Orleans, Minneapolis (after Trump’s deeply racist remarks about the city’s large Somali population), and supposedly Mississippi coming soon. Using the shooting of two National Guard soldiers by an Afghan immigrant as political cover, the administration paused immigration applications from 19 countries.
Meanwhile, in November the UN Security Council officially approved Trump’s Gaza “peace” plan, which will push the barbarity of Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territory to historic proportions. A military attack on Venezuela may be coming and perhaps even US-backed regime change, which would be another reactionary “win” for Trump internationally. The administration has taken further steps toward the dismantling of the Department of Education. What few pre-existing climate regulations there were before Trump continue to be rolled back. While the recent 43-day government shutdown hurt Trump more than the Democrats in terms of public support, Trump won the material battle in that the Democrats caved and healthcare subsidies remain eliminated, though he may be forced to make further concessions under pressure from the base and Republicans facing election.
It’s extremely unlikely that Trump can return to the approval ratings of early 2025, especially with a recession coming down the pipeline (though it’s not ruled out he can recover some support through populist measures like the $2,000 tariff checks he has dangled as a concessionary carrot). However, while Trump 2.0 can and will suffer further setbacks, an authoritarian regime such as his is not “normal.” When Trump’s back is pushed up against a wall—whether by mass struggle, pushback from his own party, elements in the ruling class, or otherwise—his instinct will not be to back off but rather to double down even further.
As we saw with the shutdown, the Democrats will not save us; we need mass working-class struggle and a new left party like Your Party in Britain to fight Trump and the far right.
2026 Midterms Will Not Be “Normal”
Only twice since 1950 has the president’s party not lost seats in the House in midterm elections, and the majority the Republicans will be starting from is already razor thin. The same trends will be at play this time, with the midterms essentially acting as a mid-point referendum on Trump.
However, this will not be a “normal” midterm and Trump will go to great lengths to maintain the Republican majority in Congress. This will include the current massive “off-cycle” gerrymandering push, unprecedented in recent times, which will be added to if the Supreme Court overturns Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, part of the broader counter-revolution against the gains of the social movements of the 1960s and ‘70s. Together these could give the Republicans up to twenty additional seats in the House.
Trump will also use other means to try and rig the results, potentially including mass voter intimidation by federal forces, for instance in immigrant-dense neighborhoods. The labor movement and the left will need to go all out to mobilize mass demonstrations, occupations, and strikes to kick out the feds and protect the right to vote, free from intimidation. At the same time we need to take steps to build a clear left alternative to both major parties that can serve as a lasting pole of attraction for the millions of ordinary people rightly disillusioned with both parties.
If the Republicans lose control of Congress and Trump is forced to accept that reality, it will be a significant blow to the administration’s consolidation of power and can give confidence to ordinary people that Trump can be beaten, including through struggle. But while it will be a massive sigh of relief for tens of millions of people opposed to Trump’s far-right agenda, the executive branch could take even further measures to diminish Congress’s role, escalating its rule by executive order and other unilateral measures. And while the Democrats will oppose Trump’s worst attacks, they in no way represent a genuine pro-working-class alternative and have very little “fight,” as they have shown time and time again.
The World After Trump
In recent weeks, talk in the media of the “world after Trump” and of who succeeds him as the head of MAGA has increased significantly, a testament to his mounting problems and decreasing sense of infallibility. But the breaking up of MAGA, which is possible at some stage though not immediately posed, would not be an automatic good. Without a genuine working-class alternative offering another way forward, the danger of an even further right trend making significant gains is extremely real. The outlines of this can already be seen in the growing support for vile figures like Hitler-loving fascist Nick Fuentes and Tucker Carlson. Even Marjorie Taylor Greene, while applauded by some in the liberal establishment for her willingness to stand up to Trump, may very well end up moving in this direction.
The Democrats can achieve temporary victories against Trump, but they can bring no lasting triumph over the far right, as we saw with Biden’s victory in 2020 followed by Trump’s comeback four years later. This is because it is precisely the conditions of capitalism, which the corporate Democratic Party defends tooth and nail, which provide the fertile ground for the far right to grow.
Without mass working-class struggle, eventually reaching revolutionary proportions, the broader trends of capitalism in the 2020s will continue—the drive toward war, heightened oppression, worsening environmental destruction, AI-driven automation, and increasing authoritarianism to keep the working class in line. To rid ourselves of Trump and his kind forever, we’ll need to overthrow capitalism itself.