A ceasefire was reached between Israel and Hamas after 15 months of barbaric war against the Palestinian people. Conservative estimations say that 47,000 Palestinians were killed. However, the real figures are likely to be much higher. Now hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are making their way on foot to northern Gaza, where the Israeli war machine has destroyed the majority of their houses and infrastructure through relentless air-bombings.

As of now, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) maintains control over the Philadelphi Corridor which separates Gaza from Egypt and the Netzarim Corridor, constructed to create a check-point barrier and a military base that separates the southern part of Gaza from the north. Despite the deal, the Palestinian masses continue to live in conditions of severe humanitarian crisis with no clear way out.

The ceasefire was understandably accompanied by a collective sigh of relief and pride for those who survived the most murderous Israeli attack in history. The release of hundreds of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons was celebrated as well. The majority of the Jewish population as well is celebrating the release of Israeli hostages held in Gaza during the war. Reports from both Palestinians and Israelis held in captivity talk about severe conditions of starvation and abuse and indeed many did not survive.

The release of further hostages and prisoners, however, remains within the fragile state of the first phase of the deal. The completion of the second and third phases, which include the retreat of the IDF from Gaza and the reconstruction of the enclave, remain unclear.

Changing Power Balance in the Middle East

Donald Trump has cynically positioned himself as the main figure to bring about this ceasefire after giving full approval for the IDF’s butchering of Palestinian civilians. He also removed symbolic restrictions introduced by the Biden administration on fanatical Israeli settlers. Now he declared the US’s intention to “take over” Gaza and expel the population into Jordan and Egypt.

Considering the mass popular support within these two countries with the Palestinian liberation struggle and the fear of the two dictatorial regimes from mass upheaval, this move was quickly shut down, for now. Trump’s unhinged remark to redevelop Gaza into a “new Riviera” highlights that the movement for Palestinian national-liberation needs to escalate.

But Trump’s arm-twisting tactics which may include refusal of military aid or investment in these two US allies mean that the danger is still there. This declaration points towards the bloody and brutal plans of US imperialism to reshape the Middle East and Trump’s intentions are to continue supporting Netanyahu’s right-wing government in its murderous oppression of Palestinian national rights. In reality, this fight is very far from over and the struggle against national oppression needs to escalate.

At several anti-Trump protests on January 20 in US cities, some speakers boldly claimed that Israel has lost the war, that the IDF is broken, the economy has been shuttered, and that hundreds of thousands of Israelis have left the country. We need to be very clear that the situation in real life is very different.

Over the past year, Israeli capitalism has strengthened its position in the Middle East through military campaigns and a rapidly changing geopolitical situation. It delivered a blow to Hezbollah in Lebanon, causing mass destruction, and pushed back threats from Iran with the aid of a Western-allied coalition. The collapse of the dictatorial Assad regime in Syria opened the opportunity for the IDF to destroy Syria’s air and naval force and situate itself on Syrian land.

It is estimated that 92% of Gazan houses were damaged or destroyed entirely. The 50 million tons of rubble is estimated to take 21 years to clear up. Schools, hospitals, electricity, sewage and other basic necessities are completely destroyed. The resources needed to rebuild Gaza are held up by the military-dictatorial regime in Israel and its US imperialist ally.

Meanwhile, the dramatic events in Syria pushed back Russian and Iranian efforts in the region, which now allows Trump to reintroduce the push for the “normalization” process between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

On top of that, the Israeli regime used the ceasefire in Gaza to unleash a brutal military offensive in Jenin in the occupied West Bank. The ongoing expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank is directly tied to the far-right push to annex the occupied territory and expel millions of Palestinian residents.

Far from coming out of this war defeated, Israeli capitalism has emerged strengthened, especially with a super-friendly Trump now back in power.

Contradictory Outcome

That said, the Israeli government finds itself in a contradictory crisis. With the signing of the ceasefire deal, IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi resigned from his position, taking responsibility for the military’s failure to defend Israeli civilians during Hamas’s October 7th attack. Many have seen this as a nod for Prime Minister Netanyahu to take the same responsibility. Far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir resigned from the government in opposition to the deal, bringing the coalition government into a thin majority margin.

Significantly, the growing protests and general strike within Israel over the past year, many of which were led by the families of the hostages, calling for a ceasefire, played an important role pressuring Netanyahu to sign a deal. 

The inspiring mass international movement in opposition to the war damaged Israel’s prestige and raised the possibility of its further isolation on the global stage. Without this mass international resistance Trump couldn’t have cynically positioned himself as an anti-war opposition to the Democrats and pressure Netanyahu to reach a deal. But now the movement needs to take on the reactionary pro-war Trump administration and fight the real danger of this mass ethnic cleansing of millions of Palestinians.

While Netanyahu initially relied on prolonging the war to save his government from collapse, the opposite became true. Now an end to the war, even a temporary one, is necessary to save him from losing grip over the government.

No Clear Way Forward

Israel has not reached any of its stated war goals—primarily destroying Hamas and freeing all hostages, many of them died in captivity, some from Israeli fire. While Hamas suffered a heavy loss—many of its leaders and an estimated 18,000 of its fighters dead—recent reports show that they were able to recruit many out of the resistance to Israeli occupation and still control much of Gaza.

The Israeli far-right is pushing to go back to war once all Israeli hostages are back, with some eyeing a return to long-term military occupation and even to civilian settlements. The bloodshed is far from over. Trump’s threatening messages towards Gaza and growing militarism and war globally show that we have entered a new era of brutal imperialist war. 

The anti-war movement needs to escalate the struggle to bring the war machine to a halt. We need to organize mass meetings, protests, and strikes, halt weapon shipments and shut down businesses profiting from war. Demands must go beyond a ceasefire; for an end to the Israeli occupation and siege over Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem; open the border crossing for humanitarian aid, medicine, food, and construction material; tax the rich to fund the rebuilding of Gaza.

Both US corporate parties are thoroughly pro-war and imperialism. We need to begin the process of building a new mass anti-war party of working people to organize the fightback on the streets, workplaces, campuses, and at the polls. To fight capitalist war, a mass workers’ party will need to fight the roots of this brutality—the capitalist system itself. We need a mass struggle for socialism, for peace and prosperity for all, not profit and war.