As we go to press, it seems clear that the first phase of the revolutionary upheaval in Iran is coming to an end despite ongoing resistance by a section of the masses and continuing splits in the elite. Below is an abridged version of an article written on June 22 immediately following the mass protests. While events have moved on, the basic analysis of this article retains its full validity.

Thirty years after the 1979 revolution, Iran has again erupted in revolutionary convulsions. Millions have taken to the streets to protest against the rigging of the presidential election, in which president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his cohorts in the theocratic dictatorship claimed a sweeping victory.

The mass protests mark a crucial turning point. Defying the “law” and brutal repression by state security forces, the protests showed that the masses have begun to lose their fear of the regime and are prepared to challenge it. This represents a decisive change in the masses’ psychology.

In the face of the deployment of the vicious Basiji paramilitary force, demonstrators in Tehran took up the chant: “Tanks, guns, Basiji, you have no effect now!”

Thus far, it has been students and youth who have been at the forefront. Educated and cultured layers of youth have been seething with discontent at the suffocating, repressive nature of this theocratic regime, which has denied choice in dress, music, personal relations, and communication.

In a population where an estimated 60-70% are under 30, such restrictions were impossible to enforce indefinitely. Important as these factors are, however, this movement surpasses them, demanding all democratic rights and reflecting a yearning for change throughout Iranian society. This is reflected by the widespread participation and support for the movement that exists in older sections of the population.

Added to this is the accumulated frustration and disappointment of big sections of the population during the last few years of Ahmadinejad’s presidency. He was elected in 2005 and has maintained an important base of support, especially among some sections of the poor and in the provinces.

Reactionary Populist
Ahmadinejad’s support among the poor was built on a reactionary populist basis, denouncing corruption and the rich liberal elite, and advocating a strident nationalist policy that denounced Western, especially U.S, imperialism.

During the 2005 election, he took up one of the slogans of the 1979 revolution, “a republic of the poor.” Following the revolution, important sections of the economy were taken into state hands. But rather than a republic for the poor, a republic of rich, corrupt Mullah oligarchs emerged.

In 2005, Ahmadinejad’s campaign also featured the demand to redistribute oil wealth more equally to the poor, and for subsidies on basic commodities. Following his election, a series of infrastructure projects were initiated.

Yet Ahmadinejad’s populist championing of the poor did not prevent his regime from brutally attacking Tehran bus drivers and others when they took strike action to defend their interests.

However, with inflation reaching 30%, rising unemployment at approximately 25% among those under 30, and the recent ending of subsidies on gasoline and some food products, frustration and anger has increased.

What Type of Revolution?
The entry of the masses into the arena of struggle is one of a revolution’s hallmarks. In this sense, a revolution is unfolding in Iran.

But there are different types of revolutions. There were the 17th and 18th Century bourgeois democratic revolutions in Europe, which swept away feudal society. There was also the socialist revolution that unfolded in Russia in 1917, resulting in the overthrow of capitalism and landlordism and the establishment of a workers’ democracy.

Revolutionary upheavals can also take place that result in a political change of power but where the existing social and property relations remain.

In Iran at the moment, a political revolution is taking place within the framework of capitalism. Revolution, however, is a process and during it social demands can emerge, bringing the movement into conflict with the social system of capitalism. Clearly, a new era has begun. The process of revolution will develop over a lengthy period of time, with many crises and turns in the situation.

Lenin outlined four main conditions for the development of a socialist revolution. First, splits and divisions within the ruling class and its political representatives are necessary. Second, the middle class needs to be vacillating with a significant section of it supporting the revolution.

Third, the working class needs to be organized and clearly willing to struggle – putting itself at the head of the revolutionary process. Fourth, a mass revolutionary socialist party with a clear leadership is necessary, with broad support for its ideas among wide sections of the masses, especially the active layers of workers.

Certainly, the first two of these conditions exist in Iran today. The third condition, a willingness to struggle by the working class, is not clearly evident at this stage. The working class has not decisively put its stamp on the movement, acting as an independent force.

The fourth condition – a mass revolutionary socialist party and leadership – is yet to be built. The degree of willingness to struggle by workers needs to be tested in elected committees of struggle and independent unions, which still need to be built.

The absence of a mass political consciousness by the working class of its independent role, and the absence of a revolutionary leadership, become objective barriers to the revolution.

Splits Within the Regime
The clash between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi represents a division among the rulers. While the masses on the streets have rallied around Mousavi and have great illusions in him, he and his leading supporters formed a part of the theocratic regime itself. Mousavi as a former prime minister was responsible for repression against left-wing activists.

What he promised during the election was reform of the existing system, greater economic liberalization, reduced unemployment and “greater equality” for women, but all within the existing theocratic regime.

Mousavi, like Ahmadinejad, is terrified of the mass movement, especially the independent movement of the working class. His program in essence is “reform from the top to prevent revolution from below” to preserve the existing order. Yet this important and significant division has opened the door through which the masses have poured into the arena of struggle.

Having begun with demands to reform the system, the movement now finds itself confronted with direct defiance of Khamenei, bringing it into collision with the entire theocratic state.

While the students have showed great heroism during this movement, the level of repression seems to have intimidated other sections to stay away from the protests. It is now possible that the movement, in the face of brutal repression, will pause for a period of time. This is especially the case if the working class does not decisively enter the struggle.

According to reports, unemployed and significant sections of the poor joined the protests in Northern Tehran (a more middle-class area), where building workers cheered the opposition march as it passed. But as yet there have not been reports of workers declaring a strike or forming their own organizations of struggle.

The Tehran bus workers, with a long history of struggle against the regime, issued a declaration supporting the movement. There were also reports that car workers in Khodro organized a strike of 30 minutes at the beginning of each shift in protest against the repression of demonstrators.

The bus workers, whose leader, Mansour Osanloo, is serving a five-year jail sentence for his role in organizing strikes in the past, while supporting the protests, did not support either candidate in the presidential election because neither represented the interests of the working class.

The eruption of the movement in Iran represents a turning point in the masses’ struggle. Iran in 2009 may only be an anticipation of an even greater movement later. Should this be the case, even if the current regime hangs on for a period of time, the social crisis and antagonisms will remain and intensify and are certain to lead to further revolutionary upheavals.

Socialist Alternative
The absence of a genuinely revolutionary socialist party and leadership, the undoubted political confusion that exists after 30 years of theocratic rule, and the international ideological retreat from socialism are likely to mean the revolution in Iran will take a protracted form.

The fact that the “socialist” president of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, has scandalously supported Ahmadinejad can only add to the confusion. Those on the left who have opportunistically remained silent about the wrong policy of Chavez towards Ahmadinejad and other regimes have not assisted the masses in Iran in finding the right road and embracing the idea of a genuine socialist alternative.

The crucial task in Iran for defeating Ahmadinejad and taking the movement forward is to ensure that real democratic organizations are formed to conduct the struggle. Committees of struggle need to be elected in every workplace, university, and district.

These need to be made up of elected delegates who can be recalled at any time by mass assemblies. Such committees need to prepare to call a general strike and appeal to the rank and file of the army, Revolutionary Guard, Basiji, and other repressive organizations of state to join the movement, remove their officers, and form their own committees.

Elected committees of struggle could form the basis for the convening of elections to a revolutionary constituent assembly to determine the future of the country.

The establishment of a workers’ and peasants’ government with a revolutionary socialist program to break with capitalism is the way forward to ensure the introduction of genuine democratic rights and equality for all the Iranian people exploited by the existing regime and capitalism.

Socialist demands would include the right to free assembly, to form political parties and independent trade unions, and to produce newspapers and TV programs without state censorship, as well as the release of all political prisoners.

The new era that has begun in Iran opens the prospect of workers and youth reaching the necessary conclusions of what program and organization are needed for them to secure a lasting victory and end the dictatorship and poverty they suffer. The role of revolutionary socialists is to assist them in finding this road.