The summer of 2005 will be remembered as the point at which the increasing unease among ordinary Americans about the course of the war in Iraq began to turn into more open and vocal opposition.

The decisive moment came when Cindy Sheehan, mother of a soldier killed in Iraq, set up camp outside Bush’s ranch in Crawford, Texas and demanded that he come out and talk. This led to an outpouring of support all over the country.

But even before this, polls showed that only 38% of the population approved of Bush’s handling of the war and 56% supported withdrawing some or all of the troops now. And in July, the AFL-CIO convention in Chicago voted overwhelmingly in favor of bringing the troops home “rapidly,” which gave a powerful indication of the deepening antiwar sentiment in the working class. Opposition to the presence of military recruiters in schools is also spreading fast.

Socialist Alternative has opposed the occupation of Iraq from the start. Everyone now knows that the original reasons given for the 2003 invasion – weapons of mass destruction and Saddam Hussein’s alleged role in the 9/11 attacks – were lies.

The rationale for the occupation then switched to “liberating” Iraq from Saddam’s rule and creating democracy in the Middle East. More lies. Saddam Hussein was indeed a butcher and neither we nor most Iraqis mourned the passing of his regime. But the U.S. establishment has supported butchers again and again when it was convenient for them.

The real reasons for the invasion and occupation had far more to do with the reassertion of U.S. military might in the wake of 9/11 and a bid to control the second largest proven oil reserves in the world. The only “democracy” the Bush administration is interested in is that which allows them and their corporate allies to pursue these goals unhindered.

We said that no good could come of this neo-colonial occupation for ordinary Iraqis or ordinary Americans. Now, two and a half years later, we can see the full “fruits” of Bush’s war. As many as 100,000 Iraqis have been killed, and 4,000 civilians have died since April when the new government was formed. Somewhere between 50% and 65% of the population is unemployed. This summer has seen the worst level of electricity outages in Baghdad.

Meanwhile, attacks by Iraqi insurgents against U.S. troops continue at the rate of 65 per day and the total number of American fatalities is fast approaching 2,000. The Washington Post recently reported that “Administration officials have all but given up any hope of militarily defeating the insurgents with U.S. forces” (8/12/05). Referring to the difficulties of maintaining troop levels and continuing an indefinite occupation without popular support at home, retired General Barry R. McCaffrey, who visited Iraq in June and reported back to Cheney and Rice, declared bluntly: “This thing, the wheels are coming off it.”

Clearly the occupation is increasingly a disaster for the interests of the U.S. ruling class and the political establishment, but more importantly it is a disaster for the Iraqi people and American workers. And the longer it continues, the worse things are likely to get.

Sectarian divisions between Iraq’s different ethnic groups are growing sharper and the possibility of a full-blown civil war between Sunnis, Shi’a, and Kurds is very real. Talk in some quarters of replacing U.S. forces with the “blue helmets” of the United Nations, besides being completely unrealistic, would also solve nothing.

The one force which can point the way forward for a progressive outcome in Iraq is the multiethnic Iraqi working class. But the U.S. military, which serves the interests of the corporations, has enforced the anti-union laws of the Saddam era in order to prevent the emergence of a viable Iraqi labor movement. To date, the occupation has only benefited reactionary, sectarian political forces in Iraqi society and their grip is likely to strengthen if the occupation continues.

There are still many good people who ask whether withdrawing the troops will not simply lead to a worse disaster in Iraq. But each day brings fresh evidence that it is the occupation itself which is fueling division and misery.

At the moment, some of the Iraqi political parties have been negotiating a constitution. The U.S. has actually intervened to support giving Islamic clerics a veto over legislation! So much for all the talk of a secular democracy and rights for women! In reality, the position of women is already far worse than it was under Saddam. The best way for progressive people in the U.S. to support progress in Iraq is to support the end of the occupation.

Recently, there has been a lot of media speculation about whether the U.S. military will begin a “phased withdrawal” from Iraq. Plans for reducing troop levels are being leaked to the media. Opposition to the war is increasingly vocal in society and there clearly is the potential for the reemergence of a powerful antiwar movement.

Some members of Congress, reflecting the increasing anger and dismay of their constituents, are also talking about a timetable for withdrawal. But opponents of the occupation need to be clear that the U.S. establishment, while desperately searching for a way to reduce the political costs of the occupation (for example by switching the brunt of the fighting to Iraqi forces), will go to great lengths to avoid an outcome that would be perceived as an outright Vietnam-style defeat.

The Democratic Party leadership is as committed to this policy as the Republicans, which is why they have again and again voted to grant Bush the further billions of dollars he has requested for the occupation.

There will be no easy solution. As in Vietnam, a mass movement must be built which really takes on the establishment. The social power of the organized working class will be key. This is why the antiwar movement must link the struggle to end the occupation of Iraq to the struggle to stop Bush and big business’ war on working people here at home. Mass action is desperately needed to bring the troops home and put the massive resources used for occupation into healthcare, education, and creating decent jobs.