He explains the nature of economic development and the relation with the radicalization and struggles of the masses. He stresses that this is not a simple process but is full of uneven and contradictory characteristics.

The article was written in early 1930; much of the detail is about events at that time in France and has been edited to concentrate on the analysis of the processes in society.

The Comintern, founded in 1919 on the inspiration of the Russian Revolution, represented the best militants of the working class. However, by 1930 it was dominated by the bureaucratic clique which had come to power in Russia due to the isolation of the Russian Revolution. Under Stalin, the leadership of the Comintern had ceased to be that of a party of world revolution. They had abandoned the methods of Marxism. This article was part of the struggle of the left opposition, led by Trotsky, to re-win the Comintern to Marxism.

The Comintern had adopted the policy of the so-called 'Third period'. This claimed that capitalism was in its final crisis and that anyone who was not a member of the Comintern was an implacable enemy. This policy was totally false. There is no such thing as a final collapse of capitalism. It will survive until it is overthrown. Today the only other choice is nuclear annihilation. The international overthrow of capitalism cannot be left to an inevitable piling up of its economic contradictions or the actions of a tiny minority. Only the working class can achieve its own emancipation.

The working class today has the potential power to carry out the socialist revolution. The objective impasse of the economic system is intensifying. The crucial issue is the building of a Marxist leadership with a program and method to give the required direction to the socialist transformation.

The approach of the 'Third Period', of the Comintern against the rest, meant the communist parties built huge barriers between themselves and the mass of the workers coming into struggle. This policy reached its most extreme form in Germany where the Communist Party branded the SPD, the socialist party, which had more support among workers, as "social fascist". They claimed the socialists were no different from the Nazis. This split in the most powerful working class in Europe of the time paved the way for the victory of Hitler.

The article was written just after the Wall Street Crash of 1929 which was the prelude to the worst slump in capitalist history. France was one of the last countries to be hit by the slump. The inter-war era was one of the economic instability, similar to the period since the end of the long post-war boom of 1950-75. Within an era of crisis there is still a cycle of growth and recession. The article deals with such a growth phase, parallels to the present upturn since 1981. As well as economic crisis, the years between the wars were a time of revolution and counter-revolution. Time and again workers moved into the struggle even after partial defeats and the mass unemployment by the slump. Only the bloody crushing of the victory of fascism or the outbreak of World War II stopped the revolutionary waves. The working class was determined enough to win several revolutions; only the failures of the leaders of the workers' organizations saved capitalism.

Capitalism has experienced an upturn since 1981 but it has been on a very weak basis. The worldwide stock market collapse of October 1987 is a warning of the underlying frailty of the economy.

It is a small tremor before an earthquake. The upturn has not been based primarily on the growth of manufacturing and of re-investment in production which are the only long term base of economic. The expansion has been based mainly on the USA's twin trade and budget deficits. There has been a colossal piling up of debt by governments, businesses and consumers. This is a house of cards.

Growth has been further boosted by the fall in world commodity prices. This has meant a huge shift of resources from the so-called Third World to the imperialist powers. The impoverishment of the masses in the Third World has increased in the last decade; there has been no upturn or stability in these countries, in fact, there had been an explosion of mass struggle.

Growth has been concentrated in the service industries with an increase in low-paid jobs. The upturn has not eradicated mass unemployment. Unlike the post war boom there has been no increase in social provision. Throughout the advanced capitalist countries the last four years have seen massive privatization and cuts in public services. In Britain the bonus of North Sea Oil has been squandered on tax cuts for the rich.

Marxists must constantly ask, "through what stage are we passing?". The character of the last few years of economic growth has created discontent and a general sense of unease about the future. Workers and much of the middle class desperately hope for a secure future. The recent victory of Bush in the USA is because of this desperate longing for security. However, neither Bush, nor for that matter Dukakis if he had won, can answer this longing. The majority of workers correctly sense that the upturn cannot last.

There is a mood of discontent but in most countries the mood has not yet become a movement. The main reason for this is the role of the leadership of the workers movement. New realism is an international disease of the labor leadership.

At every single stage the leaders have avoided a struggle. They have constantly failed to unite and direst the discontentment. At every turn they have refused to seize the opportunities to win the victories that are there to be won. In Britain struggles of the miners and seafarers could have been won but for of the TUC leadership. The anger over the Tory attacks on housing. The poll tax is a great opportunity for a sweeping Labour victory which could remove the Tory government yet they have totally failed, even losing the seat of Govan in the recent by-election.

Internationally we have seen 'socialist' governments elected in Spain, Greece, France, Australia and New Zealand. In every case their election aroused great hopes. However, they have bowed to the pressure of big business and launched attacks on their own working class voters. At the same time there has been a collapse of the old 'lefts'.

However these leaders can only delay the mass movements, they cannot stop them. Workers struggle because they have no alternative. New realism does note create jobs, win better pay and conditions or improved public services. It is from experience that workers draw their conclusions. The class struggle is a product of life in a class society.

The upturn of the last few years has restored workers' confidence. The increase in overtime and a small fall in unemployment, even if they have not restored most of the lost jobs, do boost workers' bargaining power. In addition, the constant talk of booming economies and rising profits make workers determined to regain what they lost in the last recession.

Following the stock market crash of 1987 the imperialist governments pumped masses of money into the world economy in an attempt to prevent recession. All this has done is to delay the day of reckoning and rapidly boost inflation. Rising prices will further increase workers' need to struggle.

The weak revival of the economy has not diminished the class struggle. In fact the very nature of the revival has increased the class divide. The revival has increased low pay and poor working conditions. The social fabric has been further torn down with declining standards in health, housing and education.

The crucial issue for Marxism is how to orientate to the economic and social conditions. Many in the labour movement have been led astray by superficial features and have embraced the ideas of new realism. They claim the working class has disappeared to be replaced by a new middle class. Such ideas are not new. They have been pedaled by apologists for capitalism for over a hundred years. There has been some decline in the numbers of workers in traditional heavy industry but they have not been replaced by Porsche-driving yuppies. The new workers are mainly low-paid service workers often women and part-time workers who suffer greater exploitation by big business.

All the conditions exist for mass class struggle. In the next few years workers will fight for their needs. Our class faces a stark choice. Either we grovel on our bellies in misery before capitalism or we rise in strength to stand tall and wrestle for the future. To win, workers will flood into the unions and mass parties to reclaim them.

These were built not as vehicles to carry forward a few careers but were forged in struggle to win a better life for all. Workers will not accept the sawdust words of "wait forever" from new realists - they will demand solutions.

Policies, ideas, individuals and organizations will be tested. A new generation will push forward. The left will become the demand of many. The decisive question will be - what leadership?

There is no get rich quick formula, no magical philosopher's stone in politics. Marxism is firstly about analyzing what is happening then deciding what course to chart. The aim must be to win the masses to the program of the socialist revolution. There is no short cut to this goal. Events will drive millions into struggle.

What is needed is a confident leadership who honestly explain what is happening and what is to come. This is the essence of perspectives. Marxists need a perspective to orientate their own efforts and to understand the processes of unfolding events.

A political force cannot puff itself up with false grandeur. You cannot shout louder than your own voice. Today the forces of Marxism are making great strides but due to past failures, especially of the leadership of the Communist Party, Marxism is still weaker than in the past. The Communist International squandered the reputation of the Russian Revolution. Although poorer today in terms of numbers, Marxism is much richer due to clearer perspectives and analysis. These are the most valuable possessions of Marxism.

Ahead lie rapid changes in the conditions and outlook of millions of workers. The upturn has not solved the problems of capitalism; it has exacerbated them. The prosperity that does exist is largely illusory. In the next few years, workers will be driven by experience to see the impasse of the present system. Their future and their children's future lie in their own hands. They will grasp the policies of socialism and wage a mighty struggle for a new world under the banner of socialism. Today the working class of the world is the mightiest force on the planet. However the road to victory is not a straight one. If only it was that simple! If it was that simple we would live in a socialist world.

The relations between the economy and politics, between conditions and consciousness are complex. Only by a serious study can a correct path be maintained.

Life today is dominated by instability. Capitalism can offer no other future. The conditions are maturing for world revolution. The road ahead at times may be difficult but at the end is a new world of health and happiness, security and prosperity. All human ability will blossom in a socialist society.

Bill Hopwood
November 1988