By Andre Ferrari
Translation: Erin Brown and Pamela Norton

Suplicy rejected the idea of canceling debt repayment

The big losers were the parties that supported Cardoso. The Liberal Front Party was defeated by the PT in Recife and Rio de Janeiro. The PSDB (Brazilian Social Democratic Party) came in third in Sao Paulo and barely maintained its hold on even the smallest cities in the state of Sao Paulo.

Paulo Maluf's (ex-governor of the state of Sao Paulo and former mayor of Sao Paulo) Progressive Party (PPB), an important bourgeois party, managed to survive, winning a second term in the state of Sao Paulo. The PPB's mayoral loss to Marta Suplicy of the PT in Sao Paulo defines the limits of Maluf's reign.

Anti-Corruption Vote = Anti-Cardoso Vote = Pro-PT Vote
Cardoso expected a renewal of his government's credibility as the economic situation improved, but instead the result was a campaign for wage increases like that in progress by a coalition of workers in steel, petroleum and plastic, post office, banks, and chemicals.

Strikes are being prepared to force the government to pay large sums of money owed to laid-off private sector workers.  Cardoso lost a court case on this issue and must now pay. The MST (Movement of the Landless) is preparing new land and building occupations in response to the government's refusal to increase benefits to squatters. This year, public debt is forecast to be $76.2 billion plus interest, and the Argentinean economic crisis threatens to spill over into Brazil. Cardoso government officials and allies were indicted in  major corruption scandals. Two of them are now fugitives.

In several cities in the state of Sao Paulo, PT incumbents were the only survivors of corruption exposures and indictments. Public consciousness surprised the Cardoso regime by connecting his administration to the corrupt local political machines and to the overall unemployment and the dismantling of public services in the country.

PT Victory, Despite Shift to the Right
The PT emerged in the 70s as an electoral party based on new unions organized in the industries developed by imperialism in the socalled "Brazilian Miracle." These unions emerged as a militant sector of the mass movement and are led by the Unified Workers Confederation, also under the wing of the PT. The PT has been moving toward the right since the beginning of the 1990's, but not as far as Europe's social democratic parties.

The PT achieved its greatest electoral success in the 1989 presidential race. Lula (Metalworkers Union head and presidential candidate of the PT) went to the runoffs against Collor and lost by a slim margin. His program included cancellation of the foreign debt and the possible municipalization of banks, a political line to the left of the party's present one.  With the more moderate platforms of 1994 and 1998, Lula didn't even get into the runoffs.

The PT's recent growth is due to the country's profound dissatisfaction with Cardoso's government. Contrary to the Brazilian media's assertions, the PT has grown in spite of its rightward shift.

PT Campaigns at Moderate Tempo
The PT's platforms in the municipal elections emphasized anti-corruption measures, participatory budget planning, and anti-poverty measures such as guaranteed minimum wage, scholarships, etc. For municipal bankruptcies, the PT proposed renegotiating the debt. PT Sao Paulo mayoral candidate Suplicy rejected the idea of canceling debt repayment.

PT ties to the MST (Movement of the Landless) were used by rightwing candidates throughout the country to attack it. In general, PT members responded timidly. Suplicy stated that she understood the actions of the MST even though she herself diverged from "certain radicalism."  Lula claimed that the PT never hesitated to defend social movements, but in Recife the PT attempted to disassociate itself from a strike against  military policies in the state of Pernambuco.

The PT officially assumed an anti-Cardoso stance, but often avoided attacking the federal government. In Sao Paulo, Suplicy publicly celebrated with Governor Covas of the PSDB when he declared his support for the PT against Maluf. This was repudiated by union and student activists. Fresh in their minds was a Covas-ordered military attack on striking teachers and state employees.

Moderate or Not, Bosses Hate PT
Representatives of the bourgeoisie declared that "no business will leave Sao Paulo because of the PT victories." Executives of Merrill Lynch and Standard and Poor's met with the PT to hear about its 2002 elections plans, orientation to the IMF fiscal agreement, and the possibility of a foreign and domestic debt moratorium.

On the other hand, as PT victories became apparent, Suplicy came under attack for her positions on abortion, gay rights, and prisoners' rights. An attempt was made to provoke panic over supposed invasions by the MST into cities where the PT was on the brink of electoral victory.

A wave of assassinations, violence and death threats against candidates and militants of the PT occurred. In Suzano, near Sao Paulo, a militant of the PT and MST was decapitated. In Caruaru, PT militant Jose Ribamar was shot 11 times. The PT president in Cuiaba was wounded by two gunshots to the head.

Perspectives for 2002 Elections
The PT should put forth a better-defined position for the presidential elections in the first half of 2001. Lula will probably be the party's presidential candidate. The PT's leadership intends to increase its alliances to benefit its candidate wherever it can.

A coalition of PT allies from the last presidential election, such as the Labor Democratic Party, Brazilian Socialist Party, etc., is being formed around Itamar Franco, a bourgeois-populist who governs the state of Minas Gerais, though this coalition will have difficulty developing.

Cardoso and the PSDB do not have a clear choice for a successor. They are trying to resuscitate Covas, but this will not be easy. There is support for Governor Tasso Jereissati of Ceara, but his recent defeat reduces his viability.

Ciro Gomes, a dissident of the PSDB who took a more oppositional stance to Cardoso than Franco, is another candidate, but his political line is similar. Gomes, weakened by his defeat in Fortaleza, partially recovered with an ally's victory in Rio.

Whoever is chosen, the outlook for Cardoso's successor will be dependent on the economy and class struggle in the next year. A more serious economic crisis cannot be ruled out. However, the latter does not figure in the plans of the PT leadership.

Prospects for the PT Government
The six capitals the PT will govern are in debt for over $8.23 billion. This is equivalent to 52.3% of the total nationwide municipal debt. The city of Sao Paulo has a debt of $5.6 billion.  The PT has to deal with the Law of Fiscal Responsibility, voted in by Congress and adopted by the Covas and Cardoso administrations under the auspices of the IMF. It prohibits the renegotiating of debt and establishes a penalty of imprisonment from one to four years for officials that violate it.

In its first year in office, the PT leadership will be under extreme pressure to limit public spending and investments and will face confrontations like that between Governor Olivio Dutra of the PT in Rio Grande do Sul and teachers striking for wage increases.

While the PT governors try resolving the debt crisis within the limits of capitalism, a layer of workers and youth will reach anticapitalist conclusions. The only way out is for the PT governments to place themselves at the service of a large mass movement that breaks the policies imposed by the IMF and international banks.

This can only be achieved by toppling the Cardoso government and replacing it with a socialist one. The strategy of the PT leadership is not to end the Cardoso regime, but to prepare itself for the 2002 elections.

The slogan of the day is "Out with Cardoso and the IMF." The nonpayment of foreign and domestic debt, the nationalization of banks, and a government of workers in the cities and the country are fundamental to the anticapitalist alternative. Cardoso may have been defeated at the polls, but it is now time to defeat him in the streets.

Prospects for Socialismo Revolucionario, Brazilian
Section of the Committee for a Workers' International
Socialismo Revolucionario (SR) do PT, the Brazilian section of the CWI, is a Marxist tendency in the PT. It participated in the electoral process, defending and expanding the political line of the PT. It also organizes resistance in the streets. In San Paulo, SR helped elect a left PT city councilor. SR will fight to use his term in office to organize struggles of workers and youth and to strengthen the PT left wing.

The leadership of the PT made a truce with Cardoso in the last election. The SR, however, pushed the Movement of the Uneducated to organize a protest on Election Day in the precinct where Cardoso votes. The media gave live coverage to this huge anti-Cardoso protest. In Embu, SR helped elect the new PT Mayor Geraldo Cruz. SR will demand measures like free transportation passes for youth and the unemployed, even if Cruz hesitates to act.

In Cotia, the campaign of SR supporter Heitor served to consolidate a significant sector of the youth around SR's socialist positions. This will strengthen the struggle against the bourgeoisie and against the PT leadership in Cotia, which has taken many probourgeois stands.